Highest temperature in Qingdao on October 21?
PM $51.23
1
11
Highest temperature in Qingdao on October 21?
PM $51.23
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $51.23
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event contains Polymarket contracts on the highest temperature in Qingdao on October 21, 2026 [1]. Each bracket resolves on whether the reported high falls within its range. The named resolution source is NOAA data for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, read from the "Temp" column for all times that day, to whole degrees Celsius [1]. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data exists by then, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time, not a statement that any event occurs then.
Bracket wording differs. Most brackets name a single degree, such as "Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C on October 21?", while the two open-ended brackets read "20°C or higher" and "10°C or below" [1]. The rules also allow revisions until the first datapoint for the following date is published, and allow a market to stay open up to seven calendar days (ET) if a clearly erroneous value is published [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:02.426Z [1]. They describe that moment and are not current quotes. All 11 saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not marked partial [1].
Yes prices range from 0.0205 for "10°C or below" to 0.255 for the 15°C and 16°C brackets. The 13°C, 14°C, and 17°C brackets are each at 0.22 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across the 11 brackets sum to roughly 1.56, so they should not be read as one probability distribution.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no information on trader counts, volume, or liquidity. Only one event on one platform is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is supported. The snapshot was taken before the current UTC time of 2026-10-19T06:09:02.426Z, and prices may since have changed. The evidence also does not confirm which temperature NOAA will publish or whether a correction will be issued.
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Qingdao on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "Highest temperature in Qingdao on October 21?" The event is grouped under climate and asks which temperature bracket will contain the highest reading recorded at a specified weather station on 21 October 2026 [1]. Each bracket is a separate market with its own Yes and No outcomes, and the saved event includes eleven of them, ranging from 10°C or below to 20°C or higher [1]. The resolution source is NOAA data for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station. The rules direct the resolver to the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on the observation date [1]. If that NOAA data is not available by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead. If neither source has data for the observation date by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The rules measure temperature to whole degrees Celsius, so a reading is settled at that level of precision [1]. A market resolves once the first data point for the following date is published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1]. Revisions are considered only until that first data point for the following date is published [1]. If the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data caused by technical or operational error, or by unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release so a correction can be considered [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2026 [1]. That field is a provider timestamp and is separate from the resolution mechanics described above. Resolution depends on when the resolution source publishes the relevant data, not on the listed end time alone. The prices shown in this entry are snapshots from the provider observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any temperature bracket. Trading volume and price differences between brackets should not be read as liquidity or as evidence of an arbitrage opportunity.
Historical Context
The supplied background sources describe the location rather than the weather record. Qingdao is a prefecture-level city in China's Shandong province, on the Shandong Peninsula facing the Yellow Sea, and was previously transliterated as Tsingtao [2]. Shandong is a coastal province in East China that has been a major center of Chinese civilization and religious life [3]. Neither source reports past temperatures, so no historical weather pattern is described here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the highest temperature recorded at one airport station on one date, rounded to whole degrees Celsius, using a defined data hierarchy [1]. Because each bracket is its own market, a single event can contain several outcomes that resolve on the same reading. The rules specify which source is used, what happens if data is missing, and how long a market can stay open if data is corrected [1]. Understanding these mechanics matters more than the price of any single bracket, because the settlement depends on published station data and the stated timing rules.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What station determines the result of this market?
The market uses the NOAA reading for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station [1].
What happens if NOAA data is missing?
The Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used if NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day. If no data for the observation date exists by that time, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
How precise is the temperature used for settlement?
The resolution source measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, and settlement uses that same precision [1].
Are the bracket prices probabilities?
No. The prices are snapshots from the provider data at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the sample covers the eleven saved brackets only.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves once the first data point for the following date is published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.