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Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory?

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Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	74%
Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 3%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 15%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	0%

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74%

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On Apr 21, 2026 If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Yes minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the candidate/party that finish

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Apr 21, 2026

If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Yes minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the candidate/party that finish

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between 6% and 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 21, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory?

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between 3% and 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For p

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 3%?

If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls at least 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percent

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 6% and 9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 6% and 9%?

If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between 6% and 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

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Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

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Events (1)

Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory?

Markets (8)

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 3%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 6% and 9%?

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Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

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Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 3%?

Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be above 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 6% and 9%?

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