Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
IEM Krakow 2026: Winner
Total Volume
$48.75K
Events
1
Markets
24
IEM Krakow 2026: Winner
Vol
$48.75K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
24
$48.75K
1
24
$48.75K
1
24
24 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 19% |
| Poly | 16% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 7% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the winner of the IEM Krakow 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for January 28 - February 8, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be of
Prediction markets currently assign Team Vitality a 31% chance of winning IEM Krakow 2026. This low probability indicates the market views them as a contender, but far from a dominant favorite in a highly competitive field. With 24 markets tracking different teams and total volume of just $40,000, liquidity is thin, suggesting cautious sentiment ahead of the tournament. The "Other" contract, representing any winner not individually listed, would logically hold significant implied probability given the crowded field.
Two primary factors explain these odds. First, the current competitive landscape in Counter-Strike is exceptionally balanced. No single team has established clear, sustained dominance heading into 2026, making any favorite's probability inherently limited. Second, Team Vitality's roster trajectory is key. While they remain a top-tier squad anchored by superstar Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut, their performance in late 2025 and any upcoming roster moves before the January 28, 2026 start date will critically shape their actual chances. The market's 31% price likely reflects their perennial contender status tempered by this uncertainty.
The odds will be most volatile during the tournament's group stage beginning January 28, 2026, and especially based on team form shown in preceding events in early January. A key catalyst is the official team roster lock for the event, as any significant change to Vitality's lineup would immediately reprice the market. Furthermore, the draw for the group stage and playoff bracket will impact odds, as a perceived "path of least resistance" could boost confidence in specific teams. The low liquidity means any major news could cause sharp price swings not currently reflected.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket, with no comparable liquid market on Kalshi for direct comparison. The thin $40,000 volume across all team contracts on Polymarket itself indicates a lack of deep, consensus betting. This isolation and low liquidity mean current prices are more suggestive than definitive, and they are prone to significant correction as the event nears and more information becomes available.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the Intel Extreme Masters (IEM) Krakow 2026, a premier global esports tournament for the video game Counter-Strike 2. Scheduled for January 28 to February 8, 2026, the event will feature top professional teams competing for a significant prize pool and the IEM championship title. The market resolves specifically to the tournament winner, with clear rules for scenarios involving postponement, cancellation, or multiple declared winners. IEM events, organized by ESL FACEIT Group, represent some of the most prestigious and longest-running competitions in esports, forming a critical part of the annual competitive circuit alongside other major tournaments like the BLAST Premier series and the CS2 Major Championships. The Krakow edition continues Poland's established role as a major hub for Counter-Strike esports, having hosted numerous successful IEM and ESL Pro League events in the past. Interest in this market stems from the tournament's high stakes, the unpredictable nature of top-tier CS2 competition, and the financial implications for teams, sponsors, and the broader betting and prediction ecosystem. The outcome will influence team rankings, player legacies, and the distribution of substantial prize money and ESL Pro Tour points, which are crucial for qualification to other elite events.
The Intel Extreme Masters series was founded in 2006, making it one of the oldest and most prestigious global esports tournament circuits. Its history is deeply intertwined with the evolution of competitive Counter-Strike. IEM events have been held in numerous global cities, but Poland has become a cornerstone location. The neighboring city of Katowice has hosted IEM events since 2013, with the Spodek arena becoming synonymous with some of the largest and most iconic tournaments in esports history, regularly attracting over 100,000 live attendees across event days. The decision to host an IEM in Krakow in 2026 follows this successful Polish tradition but represents a strategic expansion to another major Polish cultural center. Historically, IEM tournaments have served as crucial qualifying events for the Intel Grand Slam, a $1 million bonus prize for any team that wins four designated ESL tournaments within a specified period. Past winners of IEM events include legendary teams like Fnatic, Astralis, and SK Gaming, whose victories cemented their dynasties. The competitive format for IEM Krakow will likely follow the established model of a group stage leading to a single-elimination playoff bracket, a structure proven to create dramatic narratives and unpredictable outcomes.
The winner of IEM Krakow 2026 will have significant ramifications for the professional Counter-Strike ecosystem. Economically, the prize pool, expected to be in the range of $250,000 to $500,000, represents a major financial injection for the winning organization, affecting player salaries, team sustainability, and investment attractiveness. Victory also awards crucial ESL Pro Tour points, which determine seeding and qualification for the season-ending IEM Cologne event and the following year's Katowice tournament, creating a cascading competitive advantage. For the host city and country, a successful event reinforces Poland's status as the 'esports hub of Europe,' driving tourism, media exposure, and local business revenue during the winter off-season. It also strengthens the case for continued corporate investment in esports from sponsors like Intel, Mercedes-Benz, and Monster Energy, who are mainstays of IEM broadcasts. On a social level, the tournament is a major cultural event for millions of fans worldwide, shaping narratives around player legacies and team rivalries. The result will be analyzed for months, influencing power rankings, transfer market value for players, and community perception of the competitive meta-game at that time.
As of late 2024, IEM Krakow 2026 has been officially announced and scheduled on the ESL Pro Tour calendar. The specific venue within Krakow has not yet been publicly confirmed, though major arenas like Tauron Arena Krakow are likely candidates. The qualified team list is completely undetermined, as it will depend on team performances throughout the 2025 competitive season in the ESL World Ranking and results from qualifying tournaments in late 2025. Tournament format details, exact prize pool distribution, and ticket sale dates are expected to be released by ESL FACEIT Group in mid-to-late 2025. The competitive meta-game in Counter-Strike 2 is still evolving, making long-term form predictions highly speculative, though organizations are already building rosters with the 2026 season in mind.
The event will be held in Krakow, Poland. The exact venue, such as Tauron Arena Krakow or the Krakow Arena, had not been officially announced as of late 2024. ESL FACEIT Group typically reveals the specific arena and ticket details approximately 6-9 months before the tournament.
Teams will qualify through a combination of direct invitations, based on their ESL World Ranking, and performances in regional qualifying tournaments held in late 2025. The exact qualification pathway will be published by ESL as part of the 2026 ESL Pro Tour rules.
The exact prize pool has not been announced. Based on recent IEM events outside of Katowice and Cologne, it is reasonable to expect a total prize pool between $250,000 and $500,000 USD, with the winning team likely receiving a share between $100,000 and $200,000.
IEM Krakow 2026 is expected to be an eligible tournament for the Intel Grand Slam. Winning it would count as one of the four required tournament victories for a team to claim the $1 million Grand Slam bonus, provided the other wins come within the defined ten-tournament season.
According to the prediction market rules, if the IEM Krakow 2026 tournament is canceled, or postponed beyond February 28, 2026, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe, the market will resolve to 'Other'. The official results from ESL FACEIT Group will be the resolution source.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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