Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent

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$5.51K

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Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent

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$5.51K

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $5.51K

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7 markets tracked

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?	Kalshi	90%
Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?	Kalshi	67%
Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?	Kalshi	47%
Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?	Kalshi	34%
Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?	Kalshi	24%
Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?	Kalshi	19%
Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

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90%

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$5.51K

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Natalie Fleming If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Natalie Fleming

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is 7% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cas"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $610
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $769
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $449
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $210
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $817
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent

Volume$5.51K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cas

KALSHI

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is 2% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cas

KALSHI

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is 3% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cas

KALSHI

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is 4% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cas

KALSHI

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cas

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Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent

Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent

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Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

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Events (1)

Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent

Markets (7)

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

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Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percent

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

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