5kt meteor strike in 2026?
PM $316.5K
1
1
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
PM $316.5K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 17% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes17%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $316.5K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether a natural meteoroid will explode in Earth's atmosphere with enough energy to count. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. Events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify [1].
The primary resolution source is the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, using the "Impact Energy (kt)" column [1]. The rules also allow resolution by other sources if that dataset is not updated by February 28, 2027, or if the repository becomes permanently unavailable [1]. These are conditions in the contract text, not announced events.
The listed end time is 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This differs from the 11:59 PM ET window end in the rules, so readers should treat the listed close time and the event window as separate details.
Reading the snapshot
The saved market has two outcomes. The "Yes" price is 0.145 and the "No" price is 0.855 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z and retrieved at 2026-10-20T00:38:19.836Z [1]. It reflects those times only, and the market's status at the time of your reading may differ.
Coverage is limited to this one Polymarket event, with one market included and no partial sampling flagged [1]. Nothing in the evidence compares this contract with any other platform or wording, so no cross-platform conclusion is supported. Volume data is not included, so no liquidity or trader count can be inferred.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price sits where it does. It also does not show any recent meteor events, scientific commentary, or how prices have changed over time. The evidence does not establish that Polymarket lists every possible real-world outcome for this topic.
Readers should check the full rule text and the listed close time before relying on the contract's terms. Price differences between contracts with different wording or close times do not by themselves signal an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: 5kt meteor strike in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether a natural meteoroid, or bolide, will explode in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy of at least 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent during calendar year 2026. The rules set the window as January 1 through December 31, 2026, ending at 11:59 PM ET, and the market resolves "Yes" if such an event occurs in that window and "No" otherwise [1]. The contract is narrowly defined. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid, so events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify [1]. The concept behind the question is a meteor air burst. Background material describes this as an air burst caused by a meteor exploding within a planetary body's atmosphere after entering, before it reaches the surface. Such an event generates a measurable shock wave but leaves no typical impact structure in the crust [2]. This distinction matters for the contract, because an event that breaks up in the atmosphere can still meet the energy threshold even though it produces no crater. The primary resolution source is the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, and the relevant field for impact energy is the "Impact Energy (kt)" column [1]. The rules also name a fallback. If that dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the repository becomes permanently unavailable, the market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources, which the rules list as the European Space Agency, the International Asteroid Warning Network, the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus such as a NASA press release [1]. The listed end time is March 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That date is the contract's closing time under the rules and does not signal any announced event or scheduled release. The sources distinguish several times. The provider observation time for this record is October 20, 2026 at 00:00:06 UTC, and the retrieval time for the provider rules is 00:00:06 UTC on the same day [1]. The reference retrieval for the background article is 00:38:19 UTC on October 20, 2026 [2]. These are the times when the information was captured. They are not the time a bolide would be recorded, and they are not the time the contract resolves.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific and rare class of atmospheric event: a natural meteoroid that explodes above the surface with total impact energy at or above 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent during 2026 [1]. It is framed around a named public dataset, so the answer depends on what that dataset records for the relevant window rather than on news coverage alone [1]. The impact energy threshold and the natural-object requirement are the two conditions that determine whether an event qualifies [1]. Background on meteor air bursts explains why an atmospheric explosion can be significant even without a surface impact crater [2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a qualifying event?
A qualifying event is a natural meteoroid, or bolide, that explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. Events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify [1].
Which data source decides the outcome?
The primary source is the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, using the "Impact Energy (kt)" column [1]. If that dataset is not updated for all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or becomes permanently unavailable, the rules allow resolution based on a consensus of credible sources, including ESA, IAWN, the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus [1].
Does an air burst without a crater count?
A meteor air burst is defined as an event where a meteor explodes in a planetary atmosphere before reaching the surface. It generates a measurable shock wave but does not leave a typical impact structure in the crust [2]. The contract's energy threshold is applied to the impact energy recorded for the event, so the absence of a crater does not by itself disqualify it [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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