5kt meteor strike in 2026? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Name: 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$130.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Vol

$130.81K

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $130.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $130.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Poly	52%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$130.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https:/

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https:/

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be cla"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $130.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.26)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $130.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 15h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

52¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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5kt meteor strike in 2026?

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

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5kt meteor strike in 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Educational Context

Events (1)