Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent

Total Volume

$127.18

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South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent

Vol

$127.18

Events

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Kalshi

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $127.18

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $127.18

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8 markets tracked

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Kalshi	89%
Will Mike Rounds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Kalshi	75%
Will Mike Rounds receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Kalshi	57%
Will Mike Rounds receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Kalshi	39%
Will Mike Rounds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Kalshi	21%
Will Mike Rounds receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Kalshi	10%
Will Mike Rounds receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Mike Rounds receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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89%

Top Probability

$127.18

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Mike Rounds If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Rounds in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Mike Rounds ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Mike Rounds

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Rounds in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Mike Rounds ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Rounds in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election is 66% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Mike Rounds ÷ total valid votes cas"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $127
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mike Rounds receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mike Rounds receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mike Rounds receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $7
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Mike Rounds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mike Rounds receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $61
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mike Rounds receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $44
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Mike Rounds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent

Volume$127.18

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KALSHI

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Rounds in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election is 52% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Mike Rounds ÷ total valid votes cas

KALSHI

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.0¢No 25.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Rounds in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election is 54% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Mike Rounds ÷ total valid votes cas

KALSHI

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Rounds in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election is 56% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Mike Rounds ÷ total valid votes cas

KALSHI

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Rounds in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election is 58% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Mike Rounds ÷ total valid votes cas

KALSHI

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mike Rounds in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election is 60% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Mike Rounds ÷ total valid votes cas

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VJh2xk" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent"></iframe>

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South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent

South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent

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Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

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Events (1)

South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent

Markets (8)

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

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Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

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South Dakota Senate election: Mike Rounds vote percent

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

Will Mike Rounds receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?

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