Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

Total Volume

$479.18

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Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

Vol

$479.18

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $479.18

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $479.18

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	90%
Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	85%
Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	76%
Will above 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	61%
Will above 38% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	44%
Will above 40% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	25%
Will above 42% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	19%
Will above 44% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	13%
Will above 46% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$479.18

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

On Nov 6, 2026 If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the question asking voters' opinion of Donald Trump as president in the national U.S. House exit poll. If those two figures are not shown separately, the value is the percentage of all voters shown for "Appr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 6, 2026

If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the question asking voters' opinion of Donald Trump as president in the national U.S. House exit poll. If those two figures are not shown separately, the value is the percentage of all voters shown for "Appr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 30%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $479
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will above 46% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will above 44% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will above 42% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will above 40% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will above 38% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will above 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $223
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

Volume$479.18

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 30%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the

KALSHI

Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 32%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the

KALSHI

Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.0¢No 24.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 34%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the

KALSHI

Will above 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will above 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 36%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the

KALSHI

Will above 38% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.0¢No 56.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will above 38% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 38%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VKaX8w" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?"></iframe>

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Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

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Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Events (1)

Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

Markets (9)

Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 38% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 38% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 36% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 38% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will above 38% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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