CA-49 House winner? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

CA-49 House winner?

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CA-49 House winner?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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2 markets tracked

Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?	Kalshi	93%
Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

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93%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

In 2026 If the House member sworn in for CA-49 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the swearing in of the Representative for the seat in question. This market will close following the swearing in of the Representative for the seat in question.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CA-49 House winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the House member sworn in for CA-49 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the swearing in of the Representative for the seat in question. This market will close following the swearing in of the Representative for the seat in question.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the House member sworn in for CA-49 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the swearing in of the Representative for the seat in question."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VKgDdS" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="CA-49 House winner?"></iframe>

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CA-49 House winner?

CA-49 House winner?

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Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)