This event has ended. Showing historical data.
$13.11K
1
3
$13.11K
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming Primera División Argentina game, scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026 between CA Rosario Central and CA Barracas Central.
Prediction markets give CA Talleres a 100% chance of beating CA Rosario Central in their upcoming Argentine league match. In practical terms, traders are acting as if the outcome is completely certain. This is an unusually definitive forecast for a sports event, where upsets are common.
Two main factors explain this extreme confidence. First, the match was originally scheduled for February 20, 2026, but was actually played months ago, on August 18, 2024. Talleres won that game 1-0. Since the result is already known, traders are simply betting on the settled historical fact.
Second, the teams' recent history supports the outcome. Talleres has been a stronger side in Argentina's top division, while Rosario Central has struggled more often. Their head-to-head record in recent seasons also favors Talleres. The market isn't predicting the future here. It is reflecting a known past result, which is why the probability is at 100%.
There are no future events to watch for this specific match outcome. The critical date has already passed. The final whistle blew on August 18, 2024, confirming the result. For markets about future matches, watch for team news like player injuries or lineup announcements just before kickoff, as these can shift odds quickly.
For settled historical events, prediction markets are perfectly reliable. The 100% probability is correct because the game is over. This case is unusual. For true future sporting events, these markets are generally good at aggregating collective wisdom, but they are not perfect. They can be wrong, especially when key information emerges at the last minute. In this instance, the market is simply reporting a known result, not making a forecast.
The prediction market on Polymarket shows near-certainty in the outcome of this Primera División match. The market "Will CA Talleres win on 2026-02-20?" is trading at 100 cents, implying a 100% probability of a Talleres victory. This price indicates traders believe the result is a foregone conclusion. However, with only $32,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is thin. This low volume means the extreme price is more vulnerable to being wrong, as it would not take significant capital to move the odds if new information emerged.
The 100% price strongly suggests the match has already been played and the result is known, with Talleres having won. The event was scheduled for February 20, 2026, and the market data notes resolution is "imminent or past due." In Argentine football, Talleres (Córdoba) and Rosario Central are historically competitive clubs. A pre-match 100% price for any away victory in this league would be irrational given the inherent unpredictability of football, especially in a domestic fixture known for intense competition. Therefore, the pricing is not a prediction of future performance but a reflection of a settled real-world outcome awaiting official market resolution.
Nothing can change these odds. The market has effectively resolved, with traders waiting for the event operator to formally settle the contracts based on the official match result. The 100% price will not fluctuate unless there was an extraordinary and controversial administrative error in the match result itself, which is exceptionally rare in professional football. The locked price indicates all available information confirms the Talleres win.
This event is trading exclusively on Polymarket. No comparative analysis with other platforms is possible. The thin liquidity on Polymarket is typical for niche sports markets after an event has occurred but before final settlement, as most trading activity happens in the lead-up to the match.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 62% |
| Poly | 27% |
| Poly | 13% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VLG8tT" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="CA Rosario Central vs. CA Barracas Central"></iframe>