GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsWorld

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Name: Bulgaria Presidential Election
End: 2026-11-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$451.61K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Vol

$451.61K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $424.17K

Kalshi

markets · $27.44K

Price Spread

2.0%avg

max 2.9%

Arbitrage

of 9 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $451.61K

94%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(9)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	72%	74%	2%
Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?ARB	0%	3%	3%
Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?ARB	0%	3%	3%
Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	0%	2%	2%
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	0%	2%	2%
Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	0%	2%	2%
Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	0%	2%	2%
Will Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	0%	2%	2%
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	0%	2%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(7)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$451.61K

Volume

Markets

3.4%

Price Gap

About This Event

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bulgarian presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 3"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $451.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $489.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.92)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (14 mkts) vs Kalshi (11 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $133.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $17.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.5% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $24.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.9% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $18.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.9% spread between platforms.

### 4. Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $17.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.9% spread between platforms.

### 5. Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $34.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.9% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $33.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.3% spread between platforms.

### 7. Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $15.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.8% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $18.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.9% spread between platforms.

### 9. Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.6% spread between platforms.

### 10. Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2027): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next  Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $15.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $31.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Delyan Peevski win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $16.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Rosen Plevneliev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $21.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $31.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Bulgarian presidential election winner?

In 2026 If X wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Volume$27.44K

Markets11

POLYMARKETWorld

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Volume$424.17K

Markets14

16 of 16

Sort:

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average72.8%

Polymarket

72.0%

Kalshi+1.5%

73.5%

Difference:1.5%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

If Iliana Yotova wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the electi

POLYMARKET

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

KALSHI

Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

If Andrey Gyurov wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the electi

KALSHI

Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.1¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

If Kostadin Kostadinov wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.9% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average1.8%

Polymarket

0.4%

Kalshi+2.9%

3.3%

Difference:2.9% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢

KKalshi

Yes 3.3¢No 96.8¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Nikolai Denkov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

If Nikolai Denkov wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the elect

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Next Market Closes

85d 1h remaining

Nov 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

8¢

Polymarket

10¢

Kalshi

3¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VNcCmb" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Bulgaria Presidential Election"></iframe>

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Bulgaria Presidential Election

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Bulgarian presidential election winner?

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Markets (9)

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Nikolai Denkov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

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Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Bulgarian presidential election winner?

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Nikolai Denkov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?

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Discussion

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Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

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