Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?
PM $964.16
1
1
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?
PM $964.16
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 5% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $964.16
Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
As of market creation, Theravance Biopharma is estimated to release earnings on November 9, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Theravance Biopharma's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.18 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Theravance Biopharma reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Theravance Biopharma releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract asking whether Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) will beat quarterly earnings. The market resolves to Yes if the company "reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release" [1]. The $0.18 threshold is the Street consensus GAAP EPS estimate "as of market creation" [1], so it is fixed at creation and does not update.
The rules add several conditions that affect how the contract could resolve. The figure must be diluted GAAP EPS, or basic GAAP EPS if diluted is not published [1]. If no GAAP EPS appears in the earnings release, the market uses the figure reported by SeekingAlpha, provided one is published within 96 hours of market close on the announcement day [1]. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, the market resolves to No [1]. Later restatements generally do not count, except for obvious and immediate mistakes [1].
The source lists the estimated earnings date as November 9, 2026, and the listed end time as 2026-11-09T21:00:00.000Z [1]. That estimate is a date in the contract's description, not a confirmed announcement date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T07:22:16.722Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation, not live trading.
- Yes: 0.27
- No: 0.73
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The record does not include volume or any measure of liquidity, so it does not show how much trading supports these prices. The sample covers one saved market for this event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for that event, with no partial sample [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this question.
Because this is the only market in the sample, no cross-platform comparison is possible here. Any other platform's contract on TBPH earnings should be checked against its own wording, threshold, and listed end time before comparing prices.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the company's actual GAAP EPS, whether earnings will be released on the estimated date, or whether any restatement or SeekingAlpha fallback will apply. It also does not explain why the snapshot prices are where they are. Because the snapshot is from 2026-10-28, the current price on the platform may differ, and the record does not show any news or other events affecting the outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) will report quarterly earnings above a specified level. The market is listed on Polymarket and is categorized under Finance [1]. Its question is whether the company's GAAP earnings per share for the relevant quarter will be greater than the Street consensus estimate, which the source gives as $0.18 as of market creation [1]. The source states that, at market creation, Theravance Biopharma was estimated to release earnings on November 9, 2026 [1]. That is an estimate recorded when the market was created, not a confirmed announcement date. The listed end time for the market is 2026-11-09T21:00:00.000Z [1]. The contract closes at that listed time, and the outcome depends on what the company reports in its next quarterly earnings release [1]. The saved market shows two outcomes, Yes and No. At the observation time recorded for this snapshot, the Yes price was 0.27 and the No price was 0.73 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single numerical comparison: whether the GAAP earnings per share reported for the relevant quarter is greater than $0.18, the Street consensus recorded at market creation [1]. It resolves Yes if the reported figure is above that threshold and No otherwise [1]. The rules define which figure counts. The resolution source is the GAAP EPS in the company's official earnings documents, using diluted GAAP EPS unless that is not published, in which case basic GAAP EPS is used [1]. IFRS EPS is treated as GAAP EPS for this market, and figures are rounded to the nearest cent [1]. Later restatements or revisions do not qualify, except for obvious and immediate mistakes [1]. The rules also set fallback conditions. If the company releases earnings without a GAAP EPS figure, the market uses the figure reported by SeekingAlpha, and if no such figure is published within 96 hours of market close on the day earnings are announced, the market resolves to No [1]. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, the market resolves to No [1]. These rules matter because the contract's outcome depends on the exact reported figure and timing, not on general views about the company's performance.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes or No price mean in this market?
The saved snapshot shows a Yes price of 0.27 and a No price of 0.73 at the observation time [1]. These are prices from a snapshot rather than executable quotes, so they do not establish a verified probability of the outcome [1].
What earnings figure determines the outcome?
The market uses the GAAP EPS listed in the company's official earnings documents, specifically diluted GAAP EPS unless it is not published, in which case basic GAAP EPS applies [1].
When does the market close?
The listed end time is 2026-11-09T21:00:00.000Z [1]. The source also states that the earnings date was estimated as November 9, 2026, at market creation [1].
What happens if the company does not report on time?
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, the market resolves to No [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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