IL-09 Democratic primary margin of victory? | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?	Kalshi	97%
Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 12% and 16%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 8% and 12%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 16%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Laura Fine in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 0%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Kat Abughazaleh in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Kat Abughazaleh in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 8%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Kat Abughazaleh in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?	Kalshi	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, April 19, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** IL-09 Democratic primary margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Mar 17, 2026

If the margin of victory X 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary falls at least Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received X minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Y if Y wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Y loses. For raw votes:

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Laura Fine in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary falls at least 0%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percent"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Laura Fine in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Kat Abughazaleh in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Kat Abughazaleh in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Kat Abughazaleh in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 16%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 12% and 16%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 8% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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11¢

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IL-09 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?

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Events (1)

IL-09 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Markets (9)

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 12% and 16%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 12% and 16%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 8% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 8% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 16%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 16%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

IL-09 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 0% and 4%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 4% and 8%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 12% and 16%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 12% and 16%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 8% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be between 8% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 16%?

Will the margin of victory for Daniel Biss in the 2026 IL-09 Democratic primary be above 16%?

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