This prediction market addresses whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy will cease to be President of Ukraine before the end of 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Zelenskyy is no longer serving as president for any period between July 24 and December 31, 2026. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that date would immediately trigger a 'Yes' resolution. This market reflects significant political uncertainty surrounding Ukraine's leadership during an ongoing war and the scheduled end of Zelenskyy's constitutional term. Zelenskyy's presidency, which began in May 2019, has been defined by Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. His leadership during the war has garnered substantial international support but also faces immense domestic pressures. The Ukrainian constitution mandates a five-year presidential term, and Zelenskyy's first term is set to conclude in May 2024. However, martial law, imposed due to the war, has led to the postponement of elections. The constitutionality and timing of the next presidential election remain subjects of intense debate. Interest in this market stems from questions about political stability in a nation at war, the legitimacy of extended rule without elections, and potential scenarios for leadership transition, whether through electoral defeat, resignation, or other unforeseen events.

Historical Context

Ukraine's presidential history since independence in 1991 shows a pattern of competitive, if sometimes flawed, elections. No incumbent president has been re-elected to a second consecutive term since 2004. The Orange Revolution of 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity (Maidan) in 2014 were both triggered by public rejection of authoritarian leaning and corruption, leading to the ousting of sitting presidents. The constitution, adopted in 1996 and amended several times, sets a five-year term limit for the president. The last regular presidential election was in 2019, when Zelenskyy defeated incumbent Petro Poroshenko with 73% of the vote in the second round. The full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022 fundamentally altered the political landscape. Martial law was declared, and elections were suspended. Article 83 of the constitution states that the next regular elections for president and parliament are to be held on the last Sunday of March in the fifth year of the current term, which would have been March 2024. However, holding elections during active invasion and occupation is widely viewed as impractical and potentially illegal under martial law conditions, creating an unprecedented constitutional dilemma.

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