This prediction market topic addresses the political future of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the incumbent President of Ukraine. It specifically asks whether Zelenskyy will cease to serve as president for any length of time between July 24 and December 31, 2026. This includes scenarios of resignation, removal from office, or death. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if such an event is announced before the deadline, even if the actual departure takes effect later. The question emerges against the backdrop of Ukraine's ongoing war with Russia, which began with the full-scale invasion in February 2022, and the immense political and societal pressures that conflict has generated. Zelenskyy's leadership has been defined by the war, transforming him from a political newcomer into a global symbol of resistance. Interest in this topic stems from the high-stakes nature of Ukrainian politics, where presidential stability is seen as crucial for wartime unity and international support. Analysts and observers are keenly watching for signs of political fatigue, challenges to Zelenskyy's authority, or the potential for post-war political transitions as the conflict drags on. The question also touches on Ukraine's constitutional framework, which sets a five-year presidential term, with Zelenskyy's current term scheduled to end in 2024, though elections are currently suspended under martial law.

Historical Context

Ukraine's presidential history since independence in 1991 shows a pattern of turnover, with no president serving more than two terms. The 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Revolution of Dignity (Maidan) both resulted in the premature ousting of presidents (Viktor Yanukovych and, indirectly, Viktor Yushchenko's political decline), demonstrating the potential for rapid political change under pressure. The current constitution, adopted in 1996 and amended several times, establishes a five-year presidential term with a two-term limit. It also outlines clear succession procedures: in case of vacancy, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada temporarily assumes duties, and an election must be held within 90 days. However, Article 83 of the constitution allows for the suspension of elections during martial law, a condition that has been in place since February 24, 2022. This legal precedent is critical, as it provides the framework for Zelenskyy to remain in office beyond the scheduled 2024 election date, a situation without modern precedent in Ukraine. Past presidents, like Leonid Kuchma, have served full terms, while others, like Yanukovych, were removed before term completion, highlighting the variable nature of presidential tenure.

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