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About This Event
Before 2040
If X confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on which of two prominent human resources technology companies, Deel or Rippling, will complete an initial public offering (IPO) first, with the resolution deadline set before January 1, 2040. An IPO represents a company's transition from private to public ownership, allowing it to sell shares to institutional and retail investors on a stock exchange. The question specifically pits Deel, a global payroll and compliance platform founded in 2018, against Rippling, an employee management platform founded in 2016, in a race to go public. Both companies operate in the competitive HR tech sector, which has seen significant growth and investor interest, particularly following the remote work acceleration during the COVID-19 pandemic. The topic garners attention from investors, industry analysts, and technology observers because it reflects broader trends in venture capital, the maturation of SaaS (Software as a Service) business models, and the potential for significant wealth creation. The outcome will signal which company's leadership, growth strategy, and market positioning is deemed ready for public market scrutiny first, offering insights into investor appetite for HR technology stocks.
Historical Context
The race between Deel and Rippling occurs within the historical context of HR technology evolution and venture capital cycles. The HR tech sector began its modern transformation in the early 2000s with the rise of cloud-based platforms like Workday (founded 2005, IPO 2012) and SuccessFactors (IPO 2007). These successes demonstrated the public market's appetite for software that streamlines human resources. The 2010s saw a wave of unicorn creation in this space, including Zenefits (founded 2013) and Gusto (founded 2011). Zenefits, under Parker Conrad, grew rapidly but faced regulatory issues that impacted its valuation and delayed public market ambitions, a history that directly informs Conrad's approach with Rippling. The COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in early 2020, acted as a massive accelerant for HR tech, particularly for solutions supporting remote and distributed workforces. This period saw unprecedented venture capital investment into the sector. Deel, founded in 2018, capitalized on this trend, raising over $630 million and achieving a $12 billion valuation by October 2021. Rippling, founded in 2016, raised over $1.2 billion, reaching an $11.25 billion valuation by April 2023. The historical precedent suggests that companies in this sector often pursue IPOs after reaching scale and demonstrating a path to profitability, typically 6-10 years after founding.
Why It Matters
The outcome of this IPO race matters significantly for the technology investment ecosystem and the future of work. For venture capital firms and early investors in Deel and Rippling, a successful IPO represents a major liquidity event, potentially returning billions of dollars and validating their investment theses in HR tech. It will also set new valuation benchmarks for later-stage private companies in the sector, influencing fundraising dynamics and M&A activity. For the broader market, the first IPO will serve as a bellwether for investor sentiment towards high-growth, but often not yet profitable, SaaS companies. A strong debut could reopen the IPO window for other tech unicorns, while a weak one could prolong the drought that began in 2022. Furthermore, the company that goes public first may gain a strategic advantage in acquisitions, talent recruitment, and customer credibility, potentially shaping the competitive landscape of HR technology for years to come. Employees of both companies, many of whom hold equity, have a direct financial stake in the timing and success of an IPO.
Current Status
As of late 2024, both Deel and Rippling remain privately held companies with no official S-1 registration statements filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is the definitive step toward an IPO. The technology IPO market has been subdued since 2022 due to macroeconomic uncertainty, higher interest rates, and valuation recalibrations, creating a headwind for both companies. Industry analysts suggest that both are likely focusing on achieving profitability or positive cash flow to present a stronger case to public investors. Recent activity includes Rippling's large $500 million fundraise in April 2023, which CEO Parker Conrad stated was partly to have 'absolute control over our timing' for an IPO. Deel has continued to expand its product suite through acquisitions, such as Capbase in 2023. The race is effectively in a holding pattern, awaiting improved public market conditions for technology listings.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is an IPO and why do companies like Deel and Rippling pursue one?
An Initial Public Offering (IPO) is the process where a private company offers its shares to the public for the first time on a stock exchange. Companies pursue IPOs to raise significant capital for growth, provide liquidity for early investors and employees, increase public profile and credibility, and use publicly traded stock as currency for acquisitions.
How does the IPO process work?
The IPO process typically involves hiring investment banks as underwriters, conducting a financial audit, drafting an S-1 registration statement for the SEC, a roadshow to market the offering to institutional investors, setting a share price based on demand, and finally, the first day of trading on an exchange like the Nasdaq or NYSE. The entire process can take several months.
What factors will determine which company IPOs first?
Key factors include each company's financial readiness (path to profitability, revenue growth), the strategic decision of its board and investors, overall stock market conditions for tech listings, and the company's need for capital. Internal preparedness, such as having audited financials and a strong management team for public scrutiny, is also critical.
What are the risks of predicting this IPO race?
Major risks include a prolonged downturn in the technology IPO market, either company being acquired before going public (an exit for investors but not an IPO), significant changes in company performance, or regulatory challenges. Predictions must account for these unpredictable external and internal variables.
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Updated Jan 15, 2026
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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