GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

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When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

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Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?	Kalshi	72%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	66%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	48%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

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2028 President of the United States race If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before X 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2028 President of the United States race

If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before X 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campaign for i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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KALSHIElections

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

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KALSHI

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campaign for i

KALSHI

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campaign for i

KALSHI

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.0¢No 52.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?

If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campaign for i

KALSHI

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campaign for i

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VVWuRu" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?"></iframe>

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When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

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Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

Markets (4)

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

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When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

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