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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Hawaii | Kalshi | 93% |
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Hawaii | Kalshi | 5% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Hawaii pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.
Prediction markets currently price an 89% probability that the Democratic Party will win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. This price, translating to a roughly 9-in-10 chance, indicates the market views a Democratic victory as the overwhelming favorite. The high confidence is reflected in the significant trading volume, which totals $219,000 across platforms. With the election nearly 300 days away, this pricing represents a strong consensus on the expected outcome.
Three structural factors underpin the Democratic party's dominant market position. First, New York's deep-blue partisan lean is decisive. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 2006, and registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a 2-to-1 margin. Second, the power of incumbency favors Democrats. Governor Kathy Hochul, who won a full term in 2022, is the presumptive Democratic nominee and would benefit from the state party's formidable fundraising and organizational apparatus. Third, recent Republican performances have been weak. The GOP's 2022 gubernatorial nominee lost by roughly 6 points, and the party has struggled to craft a statewide message that resonates beyond its conservative base.
The current 89% probability could shift with major unforeseen developments. A significant economic downturn or a crisis of governance under the Hochul administration could erode Democratic support and improve Republican prospects. A contentious and divisive Democratic primary, though currently unlikely, could also weaken the eventual nominee. Conversely, the odds could move even higher if a top-tier Republican candidate declines to run or if early polling shows an insurmountable Democratic lead. Key dates to watch will be the party primaries in mid-2026, which will finalize the candidates and set the stage for the general election campaign.
This event is active on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with prices closely aligned around the 89% level for a Democratic win. The absence of a meaningful arbitrage spread indicates efficient information sharing between platforms and a solidified consensus among traders. The high liquidity across both exchanges lends credibility to the current price as a robust snapshot of collective expectation, rather than an artifact of a thin market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election will determine who serves as the state's ninth governor since achieving statehood in 1959. This election is significant as it will mark the end of Governor Josh Green's first term, with the winner being inaugurated in December 2026. Hawaii's political landscape has been dominated by the Democratic Party for decades, with no Republican elected governor since Linda Lingle, who served from 2002 to 2010. The election will test whether this Democratic stronghold continues or if shifting demographics and economic pressures create an opening for political change. Interest in this prediction market stems from its role as an early indicator of candidate strength, party momentum, and potential policy shifts in a state with unique geographic and economic challenges. The market resolves based on which party's candidate is sworn into office, providing a clear binary outcome for political observers and those interested in the balance of power in Pacific state politics.
Hawaii's gubernatorial history reveals a strong Democratic trend since statehood. Democrats have held the governorship for 48 of the state's 65 years, with only two Republican governors elected: William F. Quinn (1959-1962) and Linda Lingle (2002-2010). The 2022 election continued this pattern, with Democrat Josh Green defeating Republican Duke Aiona by a 26-point margin, the largest victory in a Hawaii gubernatorial race since 1998. The Democratic Party's dominance is rooted in the state's political development following the overthrow of the Hawaiian monarchy and subsequent territorial period, where organized labor and the plantation economy shaped early party allegiances. This historical context makes any potential Republican victory in 2026 particularly significant, as it would represent only the third time in state history that the GOP has captured the governorship. The last competitive election occurred in 2014, when Democrat David Ige defeated Duke Aiona by just 5 percentage points, suggesting that while Democratic, Hawaii's electorate can produce close contests under certain conditions.
The outcome of Hawaii's 2026 gubernatorial election will determine the state's approach to pressing issues including tourism management, housing affordability, and climate change adaptation. With tourism representing approximately 20% of Hawaii's economy, the governor's policies directly affect the state's largest industry and employment base. The election also matters for indigenous Hawaiian rights and the management of sacred lands, issues where the governor plays a crucial role in balancing development with cultural preservation. Beyond state borders, Hawaii's governorship influences U.S. policy in the Pacific region, with the governor serving as a key liaison between the federal government and Pacific Island nations. The election's outcome could signal either continuity in Hawaii's Democratic political tradition or a significant realignment with implications for how the state addresses its unique geographic isolation, high cost of living, and vulnerability to climate impacts.
As of late 2024, the 2026 gubernatorial race remains in its formative stages with no official candidates declared. Governor Josh Green has not formally announced whether he will seek re-election, though he has indicated he is leaning toward running. Potential challengers within both parties are reportedly conducting private polling and donor outreach while awaiting Green's decision. The Democratic Party appears unified behind Green should he run again, while Republicans are assessing whether to mount a serious challenge or conserve resources for more competitive races. The political landscape continues to be shaped by ongoing recovery efforts from the 2023 Maui wildfires, with Green's administration facing scrutiny over response coordination and housing solutions for displaced residents.
The election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as part of the nationwide midterm elections. The winner will be inaugurated in early December 2026 for a four-year term ending in December 2030.
Yes, Governor Green is eligible to seek a second four-year term in 2026. Hawaii governors are limited to two consecutive terms, so 2026 would represent his final opportunity for re-election before being term-limited in 2030.
Only two Republicans have served as governor since Hawaii achieved statehood in 1959. William F. Quinn served from 1959 to 1962, and Linda Lingle served from 2002 to 2010, making Republican governors relatively rare in Hawaii's political history.
Key issues will likely include housing affordability, tourism management, cost of living, climate change adaptation, and recovery from the 2023 Maui wildfires. Economic diversification and healthcare access are also perennial concerns for Hawaii voters.
Hawaii uses an open primary system where registered voters may choose any party's ballot. The top vote-getter from each party advances to the general election, with no runoff required regardless of margin.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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