What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give about a 2% chance that either Bill or Hillary Clinton will be held in contempt of Congress by February 28, 2026. In simple terms, traders see this as very unlikely, roughly a 1 in 50 possibility. The market reflects a strong consensus that a formal congressional contempt vote against either Clinton is not expected in the near future.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Several factors explain the low probability. First, holding a former president or secretary of state in contempt is an extreme political and historical step. It has never happened before. Such an action requires a majority vote in the House of Representatives, which would demand substantial political will and evidence.
Second, the current political context matters. While some congressional committees may investigate figures from prior administrations, the path to a full chamber contempt vote is long and contentious. It typically follows a refusal to comply with a subpoena or a formal committee recommendation. There is no public indication such a process is actively moving forward against the Clintons.
Finally, historical precedent suggests these votes are rare and usually target officials for specific, ongoing disputes. The Clintons are no longer in government roles, which makes the legal and practical grounds for contempt less clear.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The market resolves in about two years, so the timeline is broad. Watch for any new congressional investigations that formally involve the Clintons. A specific event to monitor would be a subpoena issued to either Bill or Hillary Clinton by a House committee. If one is issued and they were to defy it, that could start a process leading to a contempt vote. The outcomes of the 2024 elections, which will determine control of Congress in 2025, are also significant. A change in committee leadership or chamber control could alter the likelihood of such investigations.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets are generally reliable for forecasting political outcomes where the rules are clear and the event is binary, like a vote. However, for very low-probability, high-profile events like this, the market can be sensitive to sudden news. The 2% chance likely accounts for unpredictable political shifts. While markets are good at aggregating collective judgment, their accuracy depends on the availability of clear information. For this question, the low probability mainly reflects the significant institutional and political barriers in place.
