Will the Progressive Union win a majority in the Benin parliamentary election? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will the Progressive Union win a majority in the Benin parliamentary election?

Total Volume

$4.84K

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Will the Progressive Union win a majority in the Benin parliamentary election?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.84K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.84K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will the Progressive Union win at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Progressive Union win at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?	Kalshi	74%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$4.84K

Volume

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About This Event

In 2026 If the Progressive Union has won at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Progressive Union win a majority in the Benin parliamentary election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the Progressive Union has won at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Progressive Union has won at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $236.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Progressive Union win at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

74¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Va4NhQ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the Progressive Union win a majority in the Benin parliamentary election?"></iframe>

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Will the Progressive Union win a majority in the Benin parliamentary election?

Will the Progressive Union win a majority in the Benin parliamentary election?

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Will the Progressive Union win at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)