Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 14?

Name: Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 14?
End: 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.67K

Events

Markets

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Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 14?

Vol

$18.67K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.67K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.67K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 14?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 14?	Poly	45%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 14?	Poly	27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 14?	Poly	16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 14?	Poly	15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 14?	Poly	2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on October 14?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 14?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 14?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on October 14?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 14?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on October 14?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$18.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 14?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 14, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" colum"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $83.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.22)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $643
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $928
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $570
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $648
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $781
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $683
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on October 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $682
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate