Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Premier of New South Wales

Name: Next Premier of New South Wales
End: 2027-03-28T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.36K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Premier of New South Wales

Vol

$2.36K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.36K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.36K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Chris Minns be the next Premier of New South Wales?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Chris Minns be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	68%
Will Kellie Sloane be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	21%
Will Mark Speakman be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	6%
Will Rose Jackson be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	6%
Will Ryan Park be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	5%
Will Gurmesh Singh be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	4%
Will Mike Newman be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	4%
Will Prue Car be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	4%
Will Penny Sharpe be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	3%
Will Daniel Mookhey be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	3%
Will Alister Henskens be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$2.36K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of New South Wales as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Premier of New South Wales
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 28, 2027 (168 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of New South Wales as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of New South Wales as a result of the specified elections.

To count"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $99.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Chris Minns be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $358
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Kellie Sloane be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $531
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mike Newman be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $133
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gurmesh Singh be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ryan Park be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $146
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Daniel Mookhey be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Prue Car be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Penny Sharpe be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Rose Jackson be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $133
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Mark Speakman be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Alister Henskens be the next Premier of New South Wales?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 28, 2027): Vol $103
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics