Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

Name: How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?
End: 2026-10-19T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.70K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

Vol

$2.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.70K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Poly	35%
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Poly	32%
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Poly	25%
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Poly	23%
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Poly	23%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$2.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 19, 2026 (8 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ship"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $703
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.84)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $315
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $485
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $621
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics