Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?

Total Volume

$15.61K

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Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?

Vol

$15.61K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $15.61K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.61K

100%

Kalshi leads

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8 markets tracked

Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?	Kalshi	64%
Will AfD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?	Kalshi	17%
Will Grüne win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?	Kalshi	7%
Will SPD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?	Kalshi	2%
Will FDP win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?	Kalshi	2%
Will BSW win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?	Kalshi	2%
Will SSW win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Die Linke win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

64%

Top Probability

$15.61K

Volume

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About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination de

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination de

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If SSW wins the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO
If both or neither"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SSW win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SPD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $896
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Grüne win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $772
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will FDP win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Die Linke win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will BSW win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will AfD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?

Volume$15.61K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.0¢No 36.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

If CDU wins the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither

KALSHI

Will AfD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AfD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

If AfD wins the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither

KALSHI

Will Grüne win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Grüne win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

If Grüne wins the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neith

KALSHI

Will SPD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will SPD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

If SPD wins the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither

KALSHI

Will FDP win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will FDP win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

If FDP wins the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither

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12¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VfCY_H" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?"></iframe>

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Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?

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Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

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Events (1)

Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?

Markets (8)

Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will AfD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will AfD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will Grüne win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will Grüne win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will SPD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will SPD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will FDP win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will FDP win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

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Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

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Schleswig-Holstein state election winner?

Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will CDU win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will AfD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will AfD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will Grüne win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will Grüne win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will SPD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will SPD win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will FDP win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

Will FDP win the 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election?

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