Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?

Total Volume

$63.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?

Vol

$63.32K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $63.32K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $63.32K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)	Kalshi	100%
When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 1, 2026)	Kalshi	100%
When will the next hurricane form? (Before Dec 1, 2026)	Kalshi	100%
When will the next hurricane form? (Before Oct 15, 2026)	Kalshi	99%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$63.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If a hurricane, wind speeds of at least 74mph, forms in the Atlantic before X 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If a hurricane, wind speeds of at least 74mph, forms in the Atlantic before X 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Oct 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $63.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. When will the next hurricane form? (Before Oct 15, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $47.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 22, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 1, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. When will the next hurricane form? (Before Dec 1, 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?

Volume$63.32K

Markets4

4 of 4

Sort:

KALSHI

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIClimate

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIClimate

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIClimate

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Oct 15, 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIClimate

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Oct 15, 2026)

If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Oct 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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99¢

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When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?

When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?

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When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?

Markets (4)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Oct 15, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Oct 15, 2026)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 15, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Oct 15, 2026)

When will the next hurricane form? (Before Oct 15, 2026)

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