Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Name: What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
End: 2026-10-13T23:35:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.58K

Events

Markets

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What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Vol

$4.58K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.58K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.58K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

23 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Trump say "Save America Act" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump say "Save America Act" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	94%
Will Trump say "Pipeline" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	90%
Will Trump say "Healthcare" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	90%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	84%
Will Trump say "California" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	80%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	77%
Will Trump say "Fish" or "Fishing" or "Fisherman" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	73%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	67%
Will Trump say "Japan" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	64%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	64%
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	61%
Will Trump say "Reagan" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	56%
Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	47%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	44%
Will Trump say "Mask" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	41%
Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	38%
Will Trump say "Spoiler" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	35%
Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	34%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	26%
Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Alaska not air?	Poly	24%
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	24%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	19%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$4.58K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Wasilla, Alaska on October 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-wasilla-alaska-president-donald-j-trump) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Alaska on October 13, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 13, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Wasilla, Alaska on October 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-wasilla-alaska-president-donald-j-trump)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Alaska on October 13, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Wasilla, Alaska on October 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-wasilla-alaska-president-donald-j-trump)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specifi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $317
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $122
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $173
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $221
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump say "Fish" or "Fishing" or "Fisherman" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $80
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump say "Spoiler" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $252
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump say "Reagan" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $256
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Trump say "Japan" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $207
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Trump say "Healthcare" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $609
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $293
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Trump say "Pipeline" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $679
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Trump say "California" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Trump say "Mask" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $167
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Trump say "Hormuz" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $204
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $118
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Trump say "Save America Act" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $247
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $71
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Alaska not air?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $163
  DATA: [Yes: 24.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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POLYMARKETCulture