Lowest temperature in Beijing on October 21?
PM $0
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11
Lowest temperature in Beijing on October 21?
PM $0
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks which temperature range will contain the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, in whole degrees Celsius, on 21 October 2026 [1]. The resolution source is the "Temp" column for all times on that day in NOAA's data. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data exists by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
The rules also say revisions are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published, and that the market may stay open up to seven calendar days if the source publishes clearly erroneous data [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That listed time differs from the 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules, so readers should treat the rule text, not the listed time alone, as the resolution framework.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 06:57:07Z. It is a record of that moment, not a live quote. All 11 markets in the saved event are included, so this is the full saved set, though the provider's sample warning notes that this does not prove every possible outcome is listed.
The "0°C or below" contract priced Yes at 0.50 and the "10°C or higher" contract at 0.49. Each single-degree contract from 1°C through 9°C priced Yes at 0.34 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across these mutually exclusive brackets total about 4.05, so the figures should not be read as a probability distribution that sums to one. A price difference between contracts is not, by itself, an opportunity.
Volume is not included in this summary and should not be read as liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why these prices were set or whether they have changed since the snapshot. It does not include the Beijing weather forecast, any NOAA data for 21 October, or the final resolved value. Whether the market resolves cleanly depends on the NOAA data being available and not subject to correction, or on the fallback source being used under the stated rules [1].
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Beijing on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a temperature bracket contract on Polymarket for the lowest temperature in Beijing on October 21, 2026. Its rules state that it will resolve to the temperature range containing the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, in degrees Celsius, for 21 Oct '26 [1]. The contract is therefore tied to one weather station and one calendar day, not to Beijing as a whole. Beijing itself is the capital of China and a provincial-level municipality with 16 municipal districts [2], but the contract's measurement comes from the airport station's readings rather than a citywide average. The resolution source is the lowest reading under the 'Temp' column for all times on that day in NOAA's time series for the station [1]. If NOAA data for the observation date is not available by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the rules name the Weather Underground Daily Observations table as the fallback [1]. If no data for the observation date is available by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The rules also say the resolution source measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, so settlement uses that level of precision [1]. The rules allow for correction of errors. If the resolution source publishes data that is clearly erroneous because of technical or operational error, or because of unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release so a correction can be published [1]. If no corrected value appears in that window, Polymarket may issue a Clarification to decide how to proceed [1]. Revisions to temperatures within the market's timeframe are considered until the first data point for the following date is published, after which changes are not considered [1]. The market is structured as a set of brackets. The saved event includes contracts asking whether the lowest temperature will be 0 degrees Celsius or below, each whole degree from 1 through 9 degrees Celsius, and 10 degrees Celsius or higher [1]. Each bracket has Yes and No outcomes. Because the brackets are mutually exclusive and cover the stated temperature range, exactly one bracket is expected to match the recorded reading under the stated rules.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single number: the lowest whole-degree Celsius reading that NOAA records at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station on October 21, 2026 [1]. Because the outcome is the bracket containing that reading, each bracket asks a narrow question about one day's minimum temperature at one location. The fallback sources, the bracket default when data is missing, and the correction window all determine how a final value is settled, so the rules matter as much as the forecast question itself [1]. Market prices shown alongside the contract reflect trading activity at the time of retrieval and are not verified probabilities or guaranteed execution prices.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly does this market resolve on?
It resolves to the temperature bracket that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26 [1].
Why does the station location matter?
The rules tie the measurement to the Beijing Capital International Airport Station rather than to the city as a whole [1]. Beijing is a large municipality with 16 municipal districts [2], so readings elsewhere in the city are not the contract's measure.
What happens if NOAA data is missing?
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used [1]. If there is no data for the observation date by that time, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Can the recorded value be changed after publication?
Revisions are considered until the first data point for the following date has been published. If the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release for a correction [1].
What precision does the market use?
The resolution source measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, and settlement uses that level of precision [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
