Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

Total Volume

$10.15K

Events

Markets

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Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

Vol

$10.15K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.15K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.15K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	31%
Will Aaron Gunn be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	16%
Will Caroline Elliott be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	14%
Will Iain Black be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	9%
Will Yuri Fulmer be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Stockwell Day be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Sheldon Clare be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Harman Bhangu be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Chip Wilson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Claire Rattée be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Steve Kooner be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$10.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2028 If X formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2028

If X formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Aaron Gunn formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purpo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Aaron Gunn be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Yuri Fulmer be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $477
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Steve Kooner be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $252
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Stockwell Day be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $267
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Sheldon Clare be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $84
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Iain Black be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Harman Bhangu be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $84
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Chip Wilson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $267
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Claire Rattée be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $252
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Caroline Elliott be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $830
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

Volume$10.15K

Markets11

11 of 11

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KALSHI

Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

If Lorne Doerkson formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the p

KALSHI

Will Aaron Gunn be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Aaron Gunn be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

If Aaron Gunn formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purpo

KALSHI

Will Caroline Elliott be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Caroline Elliott be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

If Caroline Elliott formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the

KALSHI

Will Iain Black be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Iain Black be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

If Iain Black formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purpo

KALSHI

Will Yuri Fulmer be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Yuri Fulmer be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

If Yuri Fulmer formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purp

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8¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VlA1CU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?"></iframe>

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Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

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Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

Markets (11)

Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Aaron Gunn be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Aaron Gunn be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Caroline Elliott be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Caroline Elliott be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Iain Black be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Iain Black be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Yuri Fulmer be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Yuri Fulmer be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

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Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Lorne Doerkson be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Aaron Gunn be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Aaron Gunn be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Caroline Elliott be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Caroline Elliott be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Iain Black be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Iain Black be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Yuri Fulmer be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Yuri Fulmer be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028?

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