This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?

Name: Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?
End: 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$17.54K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?

Vol

$17.54K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $17.54K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.54K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Poly	90%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Poly	5%
Will UAE replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Poly	1%
Will another country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Poly	0%
Will Bolivia replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$17.54K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other” If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 31, 2026 (52 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Bolivia replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will UAE replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will another country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld