Name: UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-04-26T03:59:59.999Z

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UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims) | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $83.96

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $83.96

100%

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9 markets tracked

UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)	Poly	73%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	57%
Will Jafel Filho win by KO or TKO?	Poly	53%
Will Lucas Rocha win by KO or TKO?	Poly	53%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	53%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	52%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	52%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	52%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	51%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

73%

Top Probability

$83.96

Volume

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Jafel Filho" if Jafel Filho is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lucas Rocha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Lucas Rocha" if Lucas Rocha is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official infor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 26, 2026 (10 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Jafel Filho" if Jafel Filho is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lucas Rocha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026.

It will resolve to "Lucas Rocha" if Lucas Rocha is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official infor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Jafel Filho" if Jafel Filho is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lucas Rocha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026.

It will resolve to "Lucas Rocha" if Lucas Rocha is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is decla"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $84
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $84
  DATA: [Jafel Filho: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [Lucas Rocha: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jafel Filho win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Lucas Rocha win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 43.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)

Volume$83.96

Markets9

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POLYMARKET

Will Jafel Filho win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Jafel Filho win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jafel Filho defeats Lucas Rocha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualific

POLYMARKET

Will Lucas Rocha win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Lucas Rocha win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lucas Rocha defeats Jafel Filho at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualific

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Jafel Filho and Lucas Rocha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a dra

POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Jafel Filho and Lucas Rocha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decide

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Jafel Filho and Lucas Rocha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will re

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9d 10h remaining

Apr 26, 2026 3:59 AM

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55¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/VoRjMq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)

UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)

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UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)

Markets (9)

Will Jafel Filho win by KO or TKO?

Will Jafel Filho win by KO or TKO?

Will Lucas Rocha win by KO or TKO?

Will Lucas Rocha win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)

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UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims)

Will Jafel Filho win by KO or TKO?

Will Jafel Filho win by KO or TKO?

Will Lucas Rocha win by KO or TKO?

Will Lucas Rocha win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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Discussion

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