Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM in 2026?

Total Volume

$163.62

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM in 2026?

Vol

$163.62

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $163.62

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $163.62

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$163.62

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint If Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing im

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint

If Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing im

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $164
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Pennsylvania formally initiates or completes a statewide withdrawal from PJM through binding governmental action directing implementation or coordinated filings by the affected Pennsylvania electric utilities to remove all or substantially all Pennsylvania retail load and associated transmission operations from PJM’s regional operational and wholesale-market footprint before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $164
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics