What will be in the next reconciliation bill? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

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What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?	Kalshi	72%
Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill?	Kalshi	66%
Will Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill?	Kalshi	17%
Will Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?	Kalshi	17%
Will A reduction in Medicaid spending be in the next reconciliation bill?	Kalshi	6%
Will Defense appropriations totaling more than $1 billion be in the next reconciliation bill?	Kalshi	6%
Will New state grants related to election administration be in the next reconciliation bill?	Kalshi	5%
Will A provision reducing improper payments in the Earned Income Tax Credit be in the next reconciliation bill?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

Before 2027 If the next reconciliation bill to become law includes mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least X Y before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, April 21, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will be in the next reconciliation bill?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If the next reconciliation bill to become law includes mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least X Y before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the next reconciliation bill to become law includes a reduction in Medicaid spending before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will A reduction in Medicaid spending be in the next reconciliation bill?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will New state grants related to election administration be in the next reconciliation bill?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will A provision reducing improper payments in the Earned Income Tax Credit be in the next reconciliation bill?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Defense appropriations totaling more than $1 billion be in the next reconciliation bill?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

24¢

Kalshi

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What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

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Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?

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About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill?

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Events (1)