$155.72K
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$155.72K
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In 2026 If X has won Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2
Prediction markets currently give the movie "F1" a roughly 4 in 5 chance of winning the Oscar for Best Sound in 2026. With odds around 79%, traders collectively believe it is the strong favorite. This isn't a guarantee, but it shows a high degree of confidence that this specific film will take home the award when the ceremony is held.
Two main factors are driving this prediction. First, the film is a big-budget racing drama directed by Joseph Kosinski, who previously made "Top Gun: Maverick." That film was widely praised for its immersive sound design, which put audiences directly in the cockpit. Traders likely expect the same technical team to deliver a standout audio experience for the high-speed world of Formula 1.
Second, the category often rewards films where sound is a central, visceral part of the story. War movies and action spectacles like "Dunkirk" or "Mad Max: Fury Road" have recently won. The intense, engine-roaring nature of "F1" fits this pattern perfectly. The market may also be considering early industry buzz and the involvement of proven talent, even though no one has seen the finished film yet.
The most important date is the official nomination announcement on January 17, 2025. If "F1" is not nominated, this prediction becomes irrelevant. After that, watch for screenings and the start of awards season in late 2025. Early reactions from guilds, particularly the Cinema Audio Society, which honors sound mixing, will be a strong signal. Any significant delays in the film's release could also change the odds, as it must be released in 2025 to qualify for the 2026 ceremony.
For Oscars held over a year away, predictions are speculative. Markets are better at forecasting nominations and winners closer to the event, when more people have seen the films and industry campaigns are active. However, for technical categories like Best Sound, early predictions can be surprisingly sharp if there's a clear, buzzworthy contender. The main limitation here is time. A lot can change in two years, including the emergence of an unexpected competitor or changes to the film itself. Treat this as a snapshot of current expectations, not a final verdict.
Prediction markets currently assign a 79% probability that the Formula 1 film "F1" will win the Oscar for Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026. This price, found on Polymarket, indicates a strong favorite but not a foregone conclusion. Kalshi shows a slightly lower price at 76%, creating a modest 2.7% spread. With $156,000 in total volume, the market has sufficient liquidity for its sentiment to be taken seriously. A 79% chance means traders see the outcome as highly probable, yet still price in a meaningful chance of an upset.
The high probability is anchored in the specific nature of the "F1" film. Directed by Joseph Kosinski and starring Brad Pitt, the project is a big-budget Apple Original Films production with involvement from real Formula 1 teams. Kosinski's previous film, "Top Gun: Maverick," won the 2023 Oscar for Best Sound, proving his team's technical prowess in capturing complex, immersive audio for vehicle-centric action. The subject matter is almost tailor-made for the sound category, requiring the creation of detailed, high-intensity engine and race environment audio that traditionally resonates with Academy sound branch voters. Early industry reporting suggests no expense is being spared on the film's technical presentation.
The primary risk is the unknown competitive field. The market is betting heavily on one film over a year before the ceremony, before any other contenders have screened or generated buzz. A technically stunning film in a different genre, such as a major musical or a sci-fi epic, could emerge as a formidable challenger. The odds could also shift if "F1" receives mixed critical reviews upon its release, weakening its overall awards momentum. The 2.7% price difference between Polymarket and Kalshi may narrow as the event nears, but it currently reflects Kalshi's U.S.-only user base potentially applying slightly more skepticism compared to Polymarket's global traders.
Polymarket prices the "Yes" outcome at 79¢, while Kalshi prices it at 76¢. This 3-cent spread presents a potential arbitrage opportunity: buying on Kalshi and selling on Polymarket. The discrepancy likely exists because Kalshi is restricted to U.S. participants, whose trading may be more influenced by domestic entertainment news cycles. Polymarket's global user base might be placing greater weight on the film's international appeal and the proven track record of its creative team. For the odds to converge, one platform's traders would need to be proven wrong, or the spread could be closed by arbitrageurs taking the opposing positions on each exchange.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific film, referred to as 'X,' will win the Academy Award for Best Sound at the 98th Oscars ceremony. The 98th Academy Awards are scheduled for March 15, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if X is officially announced as the winner in that category. The Academy Award for Best Sound, formerly known as Best Sound Mixing until 2020, honors the artistic and technical achievement in a film's auditory presentation. This includes dialogue clarity, sound effects editing, ambient sound, and musical integration. Predicting this winner involves analyzing a film's technical execution, its genre's historical performance, and the broader awards season narrative. Interest in this market stems from the competitive and often unpredictable nature of the Oscars' technical categories, which can be influenced by a film's overall awards momentum, critical reception, and the specific achievements of its sound team. Unlike acting or Best Picture awards, sound winners are sometimes less publicized, creating opportunities for informed predictions based on technical guild awards and industry recognition.
The Academy Award for sound has undergone significant changes. From 1963 to 2019, the sound categories were split into Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing. The mixing award honored the final blend of dialogue, music, and effects, while the editing award recognized the creation and assembly of sound effects. This split often led to different winners, with epic action films frequently winning Sound Editing and musicals or dramas winning Sound Mixing. In 2020, the Academy merged these into a single Best Sound category, arguing it better reflected the collaborative nature of modern sound production. The first winner under the new format was 'Sound of Metal' in 2021. Historically, genres demanding complex auditory landscapes, such as war films ('Dunkirk,' 2018), musicals ('Whiplash,' 2015), and sci-fi epics ('Gravity,' 2014), have dominated. The award has also shown a trend toward recognizing films where sound is a central narrative device, not just a technical accomplishment. For instance, 'Sound of Metal' used sound design to directly convey the protagonist's experience of hearing loss.
Winning an Oscar for Best Sound has tangible career and financial implications. For the winning sound team, it can lead to higher salaries, greater creative autonomy on future projects, and increased demand within the industry. The award also serves as a major marketing tool for the film itself, often used in home video and streaming platform promotions to denote quality. For the studios, an Oscar win in any category can extend a film's commercial lifespan and boost ancillary revenue. Beyond economics, the award validates the artistic contribution of sound professionals, a field sometimes overlooked by the general public. It highlights how intentional auditory design is fundamental to cinematic storytelling, influencing audience emotion and immersion. Recognition from the Academy can elevate the entire craft, encouraging filmmakers to allocate more resources and creative energy to their film's soundscape.
As of late 2024, the field of contenders for the 98th Academy Awards (2026) is largely speculative. Major studio tentpoles and prestige films slated for 2025 release have not yet been seen or heard. The predictive cycle will begin in earnest in late 2025 with film festivals like Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, where early buzz for contenders will form. The first significant industry indicators will be the shortlists for the Oscar sound category, typically released in December 2025, followed by nominations in January 2026. Precursor awards from the Cinema Audio Society and Motion Picture Sound Editors in early 2026 will then provide the clearest signals of which film 'X' is most likely to be.
Sound editing involves creating and collecting individual audio elements like sound effects, Foley (footsteps, cloth movement), and ambient noise. Sound mixing is the process of balancing and blending all these elements—dialogue, sound effects, and music—into the final soundtrack you hear in the theater. The Oscar category now combines both disciplines.
War films, science fiction epics, musicals, and large-scale action movies have historically performed very well. These genres often feature complex, layered soundscapes that are technically demanding and highly noticeable to voters. Recent winners like 'Dune' (sci-fi) and '1917' (war) fit this pattern.
Only active members of the Academy's Sound Branch can vote to determine the nominees in the category. Once the nominees are set, all voting members of the Academy across all branches are eligible to vote for the winner, though many defer to the expertise of the Sound Branch's preferences.
The Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Award for Outstanding Sound Mixing is the most significant precursor. The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Golden Reel Awards are also important. The BAFTA Award for Best Sound and the Critics' Choice Movie Award for Best Sound provide additional signals of broader industry and critical support.
Yes, though it is less common. Such films win by demonstrating exceptional clarity, subtlety, and artistic intention in their sound design. 'The Sound of Metal' (2021) is a prime example, where the meticulous depiction of hearing loss was central to the film's impact and was recognized by the Academy.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 79% | 1% |
| 14% | 15% | 1% |
| 3% | 5% | 2% |
| 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 0% | 2% | 1% |
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In 2026 If X has won Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2
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