Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

When will the Bitcoin halving occur?

Name: When will the Bitcoin halving occur?
End: 2028-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$107.56

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

When will the Bitcoin halving occur?

Vol

$107.56

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $107.56

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $107.56

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will the Bitcoin halving occur by June 30, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Bitcoin halving occur by June 30, 2028?	Poly	92%
Will the Bitcoin halving occur by March 31, 2028?	Poly	45%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$107.56

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next Bitcoin halving occurs by the date specified in the title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The next Bitcoin halving refers to the mining of Bitcoin block 1,050,000, the block at which the Bitcoin network’s block subsidy is next scheduled to be reduced by half. The resolution source is mempool.space (https://mempool.space), specifically the “Timestamp” value displayed on the page for block 1,050,000 once it has been mined,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the Bitcoin halving occur?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2028 (629 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next Bitcoin halving occurs by the date specified in the title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The next Bitcoin halving refers to the mining of Bitcoin block 1,050,000, the block at which the Bitcoin network’s block subsidy is next scheduled to be reduced by half.

The resolution source is mempool.space (https://mempool.space), specifically the “Timestamp” value displayed on the page for block 1,050,000 once it has been mined, 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next Bitcoin halving occurs by the date specified in the title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The next Bitcoin halving refers to the mining of Bitcoin block 1,050,000, the block at which the Bitcoin network’s block subsidy is next"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $108
* **Total Liquidity:** $626
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bitcoin halving occur by March 31, 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2028): Vol $98
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Bitcoin halving occur by June 30, 2028?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2028): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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