Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
2026 Winter Olympics: 2nd Most Medals
Total Volume
$1.84K
Events
1
Markets
12
2026 Winter Olympics: 2nd Most Medals
Vol
$1.84K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
12
$1.84K
1
12
$1.84K
1
12
12 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 32% |
 | Poly | 28% |
 | Poly | 26% |
 | Poly | 26% |
 | Poly | 25% |
 | Poly | 24% |
 | Poly | 23% |
 | Poly | 23% |
 | Poly | 10% |
 | Poly | 7% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 5% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the country that wins the second most medals (including gold, silver, and bronze) at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026. In the case of ties, the ordered list for most medals won will use most gold medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most medals won, and Norway wins more gold medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country wh
Prediction markets currently assign Germany a 31% probability of winning the second-most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. This price, trading on Polymarket, indicates the market views Germany as a plausible but not leading contender for the silver medal position on the gold medal table. With Norway historically dominant and heavily favored to win the most golds, the battle for second place is the primary focus. The market shows thin liquidity, with only $4,000 in volume spread across 12 country-specific contracts, suggesting these are early, speculative odds.
Germany’s pricing reflects its consistent status as a winter sports powerhouse. At the 2022 Beijing Games, Germany finished second in the gold medal count with 12, trailing only Norway. Its strength is historically broad-based, with high medal potential in luge, biathlon, speed skating, and nordic combined. The 31% probability likely incorporates this strong historical baseline. However, the odds also account for rising competition. Nations like the United States and Canada are investing heavily in winter programs, while China demonstrated improved performance as a recent host. The market is effectively pricing Germany as the historical favorite for the runner-up spot, but with significant uncertainty.
The current odds will be highly sensitive to team announcements, athlete form, and pre-Olympic world championships in the winter of 2025/2026. A key catalyst will be the health and participation of Germany’s star athletes across disciplines. Conversely, if the United States or Canada shows dominant form in early 2026 World Cup events, their contract prices could rise, compressing Germany’s odds. Another major risk is the potential for a surprise nation, such as Austria or the Netherlands, to have an exceptional games in their niche sports, disrupting the expected hierarchy. The thin market liquidity means any major news could cause significant price volatility in the coming months.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on which nation will finish second in the overall medal count at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina, Italy. The market resolves based on the total number of medals (gold, silver, and bronze combined) won by a country during the Games, scheduled from February 6 to 22, 2026. In the event of a tie for second place, the tiebreaker is the number of gold medals won. If a tie persists, the resolution follows the official International Olympic Committee (IOC) ranking protocol. This market is distinct from predicting the overall winner, adding a layer of strategic analysis as it often involves forecasting the performance of traditional winter sports powerhouses like Germany, Canada, and the United States, who frequently vie for the top spots behind the dominant Norwegian team. Interest in this market stems from the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of winter sports, where a handful of events can dramatically shift the standings. The 2026 Games will feature new events and venues, potentially altering historical competitive advantages. Bettors and analysts must consider factors like athlete development cycles, host nation advantages for Italy, and the impact of geopolitical factors on athlete participation. The market serves as a barometer for national sports program strength and offers insight into the shifting landscape of international winter sports competition beyond simply identifying the single best team.
The battle for second place in the Winter Olympics medal table has been fiercely contested for decades, often more unpredictable than the race for first. Since the 1992 Albertville Games, six different nations have finished second overall: Germany, Russia, Canada, Austria, the United States, and Norway. This highlights the volatility of the position. Germany has been the most consistent contender, securing second place five times since reunification (1992, 1998, 2002, 2018, 2022). The 2010 Vancouver Games marked a significant shift, with the United States winning the most medals overall (37) and Germany a distant second (30), while traditional power Norway finished fourth. This demonstrated how host nation investment and the rise of new sports like snowboarding could reshape the landscape. The 2022 Beijing Games reinforced Norway's current dominance, as they set a Winter Olympics record with 37 total medals. The race for second was extremely tight, with Germany (27 medals) narrowly edging out China (15) and the United States (25), though China's gold medal count (9) was higher than Germany's (12). This recent precedent underscores the importance of the gold medal tiebreaker rule embedded in this prediction market. Historically, nations with deep programs across both alpine and Nordic sports, like Germany and Austria, have challenged for the position, while countries with strengths in a more limited set of disciplines, like the Netherlands in speed skating, typically lack the breadth to finish second overall.
The competition for second place in the Olympic medal count carries significant national prestige and has tangible implications for sports funding and development. For national Olympic committees, a top-two finish is often a key performance indicator used to justify government and private investment in athletic programs. Success can trigger increased sponsorship, better training facilities, and greater public support for winter sports, creating a virtuous cycle for a nation's athletic ecosystem. Conversely, falling short of expectations can lead to funding reviews and strategic overhauls. Beyond sports, the medal table is frequently interpreted as a soft power metric, a non-military arena for nations to demonstrate organizational excellence, technological advancement in equipment, and cultural influence. For host country Italy, a strong finish near the top would be seen as a validation of the Games' legacy and a boost to national morale. For the global sports industry, the results influence marketing strategies, broadcast rights valuations for different sports, and athlete endorsement potential, as corporate sponsors closely align with successful national teams and individual stars from high ranking countries.
As of late 2024, nations are in the final phases of qualifying athletes for the 2026 Games. World Cup and World Championship performances throughout the 2024-2025 season will solidify team rosters and reveal form. Norway continues to dominate World Cup circuits in cross-country skiing and biathlon, reinforcing their status as favorites for the top spot. Germany remains strong in luge and ski jumping, while Canada and the United States are competitive in freestyle skiing and snowboarding events. The Italian team is showing improved results in alpine skiing and speed skating as part of its build up to the home Games. The official competition schedule for Milano-Cortina has been released, confirming the inclusion of ski mountaineering, which may offer new medal opportunities for nations like Switzerland and France.
Based on recent history, Germany and Canada are considered the leading contenders. Germany has finished second in two of the last three Games, while Canada was a close third in 2022. However, the United States and a host nation boosted Italy are also strong potential challengers.
If two or more countries tie for the same medal total, the official IOC ranking system breaks the tie by comparing the number of gold medals. The country with more golds is ranked higher. If still tied, silver medals are compared, then bronze medals.
Yes. The United States finished second as host in 2002 (Salt Lake City), and Norway did so in 1994 (Lillehammer). This historical precedent suggests Italy could outperform expectations and challenge for a high position in 2026.
Sports with many medal events are crucial. This includes alpine skiing (11 events), cross-country skiing (12 events), biathlon (11 events), and speed skating (14 events). Nations need breadth across these high yield disciplines to accumulate a large total medal count.
Projections become more reliable as the Games approach, but two years out they are based on historical performance, current World Cup standings, and known athlete pipelines. Surprises from emerging athletes or unexpected retirements can significantly alter the outlook.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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