GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US tariff revenue for 2026

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US tariff revenue for 2026

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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6 markets tracked

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?	Kalshi	94%
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?	Kalshi	93%
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?	Kalshi	87%
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?	Kalshi	81%
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?	Kalshi	55%
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $250‎ billion?	Kalshi	34%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

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About This Event

2026 If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above X billion, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2, b. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US tariff revenue for 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above X billion, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2, b. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $80‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b). Early close condition: This market will cl"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $250‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US tariff revenue for 2026

Volume$0.00

Markets6

6 of 6

Sort:

KALSHI

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $80‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b). Early close condition: This market will cl

KALSHI

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.0¢No 7.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $100‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b). Early close condition: This market will c

KALSHI

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.0¢No 13.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $125‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b). Early close condition: This market will c

KALSHI

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $150‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b). Early close condition: This market will c

KALSHI

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?

If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $200‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b). Early close condition: This market will c

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Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

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Events (1)

US tariff revenue for 2026

Markets (6)

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US tariff revenue for 2026

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?

Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?

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Discussion

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