Jobs numbers in Jan 2026? | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	98%
Will above 0 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will above 10000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will above 20000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	89%
Will above 30000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	79%
Will above 40000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	68%
Will above 50000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	62%
Will above 60000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	48%
Will above 70000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	43%
Will above 80000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will above 90000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will above 100000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will above 125000 jobs be added in January 2026?	Kalshi	11%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Jobs numbers in Jan 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jan 2026

If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above X as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of January 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 90000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of January 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data rele"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $65.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $56.83M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will above 90000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $34.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will above 80000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $520
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will above 70000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will above 60000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $963
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will above 50000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will above 40000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will above 30000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will above 20000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will above 125000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will above 100000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will above 10000 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $756
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will above 0 jobs be added in January 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

59¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/W3qOzz" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Jobs numbers in Jan 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Jobs numbers in Jan 2026?

Jobs numbers in Jan 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Jobs numbers in Jan 2026?

Markets (13)

Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 0 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 0 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 10000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 10000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 20000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 20000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 30000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 30000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Community Discussion

Market Insights

Social Sentiment

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Jobs numbers in Jan 2026?

Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above -25000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 0 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 0 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 10000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 10000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 20000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 20000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 30000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Will above 30000 jobs be added in January 2026?

Related News & Context

Share

Embed Widget