Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?

Name: GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.21K

Events

Markets

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GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?

Vol

$3.21K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the Iowa Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Iowa Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	63%
Will the Kansas Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	24%
Will the Nebraska Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$3.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relev

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.

Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relev

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.

Vote share percentages will be determined by divid"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $49.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Kansas Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $810
  DATA: [Yes: 23.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Nebraska Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $758
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Iowa Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics