Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Where will Isaias make landfall as a hurricane?

Name: Where will Isaias make landfall as a hurricane?
End: 2026-10-16T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.98K

Events

Markets

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Where will Isaias make landfall as a hurricane?

Vol

$20.98K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane?	Poly	4%
Will Isaias make landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane?	Poly	1%
Will Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$20.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Isaias (NHC designation AL092026) made landfall in the listed state as a hurricane, by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. If Isaias makes more than one landfall, every listed state with a qualifying landfall will resolve to "Yes". Every market in this event may resolve to "No". A report means a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will Isaias make landfall as a hurricane?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 16, 2026 (5 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Isaias (NHC designation AL092026) made landfall in the listed state as a hurricane, by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. If Isaias makes more than one landfall, every listed state with a qualifying landfall will resolve to "Yes". Every market in this event may resolve to "No".

A report means a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Isaias (NHC designation AL092026) made landfall in the listed state as a hurricane, by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Isaias make landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $8.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate