GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026

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Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026

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8 markets tracked

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?	Kalshi	95%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?	Kalshi	90%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.6%?	Kalshi	75%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.8%?	Kalshi	53%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.0%?	Kalshi	34%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.2%?	Kalshi	17%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.4%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.6%?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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95%

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About This Event

Q2 2026 If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credit Data Bank for Auto Loans in the series “Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type.” Use the first value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for Q2 2026. Subsequent revisions will not affe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q2 2026

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credit Data Bank for Auto Loans in the series “Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type.” Use the first value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for Q2 2026. Subsequent revisions will not affe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 is above 6.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026

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KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 is above 5.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 is above 5.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.6%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 is above 5.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.8%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.8%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 is above 5.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

KALSHI

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.0%?

If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credi

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Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026

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Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

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Events (1)

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026

Markets (8)

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.6%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.6%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.8%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.8%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.0%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.0%?

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Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.6%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.6%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.8%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 5.8%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.0%?

Will the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026 be above 6.0%?

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