GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

When will the next US recession start?

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When will the next US recession start?

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When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)	Kalshi	5%
When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2026)	Kalshi	4%
When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2025)	Kalshi	4%
When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q2 2025)	Kalshi	2%
When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q3 2025)	Kalshi	2%
When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2025)	Kalshi	0%

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About This Event

Next recession If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be X Y then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights, independent of the month they highlight. For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020, 2019Q4, " would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019", if this was listed. This market will close and expire early if the event oc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the next US recession start?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Next recession

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be X Y then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights, independent of the month they highlight. For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020, 2019Q4, " would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019", if this was listed. This market will close and expire early if the event oc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they high"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2026)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2025)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q3 2025)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q2 2025)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2025)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

When will the next US recession start?

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KALSHI

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.1¢No 94.8¢

KALSHIEconomics

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they high

KALSHI

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2026)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2026)

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they high

KALSHI

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2025)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.3¢No 95.7¢

KALSHIEconomics

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2025)

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they high

KALSHI

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q2 2025)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢

KALSHIEconomics

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q2 2025)

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q2 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they high

KALSHI

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q3 2025)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢

KALSHIEconomics

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q3 2025)

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they high

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When will the next US recession start?

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When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

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Events (1)

When will the next US recession start?

Markets (6)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2026)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2026)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q2 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q2 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q3 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q3 2025)

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When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

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When will the next US recession start?

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2024)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2026)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q1 2026)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q4 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q2 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q2 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q3 2025)

When will the next U.S. recession start? (Q3 2025)

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