GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Okinawa Governor Election Winner

Name: Okinawa Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-09-13T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.23K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Okinawa Governor Election Winner

Vol

$14.23K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	Poly	54%
Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	Poly	44%
Will Shun Kaneshima win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	Poly	1%
Will Masahiro Sueyoshi win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	Poly	1%
Will Takashi Higa win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	Poly	1%
Will Mikio Shimoji win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	Poly	0%
Will Chosuke Yara win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$14.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other". This market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Okinawa Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 13, 2026 (9 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively b"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $42.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.33)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mikio Shimoji win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $730
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Takashi Higa win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $722
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Chosuke Yara win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $689
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Shun Kaneshima win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $620
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Masahiro Sueyoshi win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $736
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics