Tesla Optimus released this year? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHICompanies

Tesla Optimus released this year?

Total Volume

$130.21K

Events

Markets

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Tesla Optimus released this year?

Vol

$130.21K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $130.21K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $130.21K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?	Kalshi	27%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

Top Probability

$130.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2027 If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tesla Optimus released this year?
**Category:** Companies | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $130.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.82M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $130.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

27¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/WBUw4W" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Tesla Optimus released this year?"></iframe>

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Tesla Optimus released this year?

Tesla Optimus released this year?

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Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)