Will Relay launch a token by ___?
PM $36.0K
1
2
Will Relay launch a token by ___?
PM $36.0K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is June 30, 2027 at 31%.
Polymarket
- June 30, 202731%
- December 31, 20264.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $36.0K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Relay officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Relay will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T00:00:06.101Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks whether Relay will launch a token by a date in the market title. The contract resolves "Yes" if Relay "officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title" [1]. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1].
The rules exclude some tokens: "Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count" [1]. They also require the token to be "actively and publicly tradable," and state that "Announcements alone do not qualify" [1]. The primary resolution source is information from Relay's official X account, but "a consensus of credible reporting will also be used" [1].
The two markets in this snapshot share the same event wording but have different deadlines. Their listed close times are different as well. The December 31, 2026 market lists an end date of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, and the June 30, 2027 market lists 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z [1]. The event record separately lists an end time of 2028-01-01T05:00:00Z [1]. The title dates and listed close times should be read as separate fields.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-25T00:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T01:07:33Z [1]. These are saved snapshots, not live or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
- Launch by December 31, 2026: Yes at 0.041 and No at 0.959 [1].
- Launch by June 30, 2027: Yes at 0.31 and No at 0.69 [1].
Both markets are listed as active [1]. The sample includes all two saved markets for this event, and it is not a partial sample [1]. That does not show that the providers list every possible outcome.
The two Yes prices refer to different deadlines and should not be averaged or treated as an arbitrage pair. The gap between them reflects the different contract windows, not a comparison of one event against another. The record does not explain why either price is where it is.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any Relay announcement, reporting, or other news, so it cannot say whether a launch is planned. It also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. Because the rules use the words "officially" and "publicly tradable," a reader should check the exact wording of any token event before comparing it with these markets.
References
- Polymarket: Will Relay launch a token by ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T00:00:06.101Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether Relay will officially launch a token by a deadline stated in the market title. It resolves "Yes" if Relay officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title, and "No" otherwise [1]. The saved event includes two date-specific versions of the question, one with a title date of December 31, 2026 and one with a title date of June 30, 2027 [1]. Each version is a separate contract with its own cutoff, so a result on one does not determine the other. The rules set a narrow definition of a qualifying token. Only an official token launched by Relay qualifies. Stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs) and synthetic tokens do not count [1]. The token must also be actively and publicly tradable, and an announcement alone does not qualify [1]. A token that is announced but not yet tradable therefore would not satisfy the contract as written. The primary resolution source is information from Relay's official X account, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The saved event lists an end time of January 1, 2028 at 05:00 UTC [1]. That listed end time is a contract rule. It is not an announced launch date, and it does not indicate that Relay has planned a launch on or near that date. The saved market data for this event was observed on October 25, 2026, and it reflects only that point in time. It should not be read as the current status of the contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific project, Relay, officially launches a qualifying token by a set deadline. Its wording separates an actual, publicly tradable token from announcements, and it excludes several categories of tokens, such as stablecoins and memecoins [1]. Readers should check the exact date in each contract title, because the rules resolve on 11:59 PM ET on that date rather than on a general calendar cutoff [1]. The contract is useful for understanding how a token-launch question is defined, but the saved sources do not describe Relay's own plans or timing beyond these resolution rules [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an announcement that Relay will launch a token count?
No. The rules state that the token must be actively and publicly tradable, and that announcements alone do not qualify [1].
Which kinds of tokens would not satisfy this contract?
Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. Only an official token launched by Relay qualifies [1].
How is the contract resolved?
The primary resolution source is information from Relay's official X account, and a consensus of credible reporting will also be used [1]. The contract resolves Yes if a qualifying token is officially launched by 11:59 PM ET on the date in the title, and No otherwise [1].
Does the listed end time mean a launch is expected by then?
No. The saved event lists an end time of January 1, 2028 at 05:00 UTC as a contract rule [1]. The sources do not present it as an expected launch date.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
