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Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

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Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

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8 markets tracked

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?	Kalshi	43%
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?	Kalshi	34%
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?	Kalshi	10%
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?	Kalshi	8%
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.25%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.00%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 1.75%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 1.50%?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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43%

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About This Event

On December 31, 2026 If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bond yields, or any other interest rate. The market will resolve based on the Bank of Canada’s officially stated target for the overnight rate that is in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. This

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On December 31, 2026

If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bond yields, or any other interest rate. The market will resolve based on the Bank of Canada’s officially stated target for the overnight rate that is in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. This 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 3.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bon"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 1.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 1.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

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Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 2.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bon

KALSHI

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?

If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 2.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bon

KALSHI

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?

If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 2.75%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bon

KALSHI

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?

If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 2.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bon

KALSHI

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.25%?

If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 3.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bon

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Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

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Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

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Events (1)

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Markets (8)

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.25%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.25%?

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Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.25%?

Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.25%?

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