Lowest temperature in London on October 21?
PM $41
1
11
Lowest temperature in London on October 21?
PM $41
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $41
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is a set of separate contracts on the lowest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 21 October 2026. The rules state that the market "will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26" [1]. Resolution uses whole degrees Celsius, so a reading such as 9°C is the level of precision that counts [1].
The rules include fallbacks. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data exists by that time, the market "will resolve to the lowest bracket" [1]. The rules also allow the market to stay open for up to seven calendar days if the source publishes clearly erroneous data that is later corrected [1]. The saved event lists an end time of 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z, but the rules tie resolution to the first data point for the following date or the 11:59 PM ET deadline, whichever comes first [1]. The listed end time is therefore a metadata field, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is dated 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. Treat the prices below as a record of that moment only, not as live quotes. Each bracket is a separate binary contract with its own Yes and No prices. Their Yes prices should not be summed or averaged into one probability.
At the observation time, the Yes prices were: 9°C at 0.34, 8°C at 0.33, 3°C and 4°C at 0.28 each, 5°C and 10°C at 0.25 each, "12°C or higher" at 0.245, 7°C at 0.235, 6°C at 0.23, 11°C at 0.04, and "2°C or below" at 0.0105 [1]. The brackets from 3°C to 10°C carry most of the snapshot's Yes prices, while the 11°C and "2°C or below" brackets are priced far lower.
The saved sample includes all 11 markets for this event, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The source also notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A low price on one bracket therefore says nothing about any bracket that was not saved. Volume data is not included in this summary, and volume would not indicate liquidity or trader count in any case.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and no outside news or forecast information is supplied. The prices are not executable quotes, and differences between brackets are not an arbitrage signal. The final result depends on the NOAA data, any fallback, and any correction within the rules' limits. Readers should check the current provider page and the full rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in London on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Polymarket event titled "Lowest temperature in London on October 21?" It belongs to the Climate category [1]. According to the contract rules, the market resolves to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius, on 21 October 2026 [1]. The rules specify that the NOAA source is the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on that day [1]. The contract is a set of temperature-range markets built on one event. Each market asks whether the lowest recorded temperature will fall in a specific whole-degree range, such as a single degree or a "or higher" or "or below" bracket [1]. Because the resolution source measures to whole degrees Celsius, the market settles at that level of precision [1]. The rules also say the market may be read in Fahrenheit or Celsius on the source page by toggling units, but settlement uses Celsius [1]. The rules set out a fallback. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead [1]. If no data for the observation date is available by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The rules also allow up to seven calendar days for a correction if the resolution source publishes a clearly erroneous value because of a technical or operational error [1]. The listed end time in the contract is 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2026 [1]. That date is a contract rule, not an announced event, and the market is set to resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by the 11:59 PM ET deadline, whichever comes first [1]. Revisions to recorded temperatures are considered only until that first data point for the following date is published [1]. The market data in this article reflects a snapshot taken on 19 October 2026 at 06:00 UTC, retrieved shortly after. It is a point-in-time view of the listed contract, not a live quote, and it does not reflect any observed temperature on 21 October.
Historical Context
Background sources describe London as having a temperate oceanic climate under the Köppen classification (Cfb), with cool winters, frequent cloudy skies, rain showers, warm summers, and precipitation spread fairly evenly through the year [2]. Reliable temperature records for the whole of the United Kingdom go back to about 1880 [3]. The supplied sources do not give historical lowest-temperature figures for the London City Airport Station or for October in London, so this article does not describe typical October lows.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, specific reading: the lowest temperature NOAA records at the London City Airport Station on 21 October 2026, expressed in whole degrees Celsius [1]. Its value depends on the rules for which source counts, how the data is read, and how fallbacks and corrections apply [1]. Because the outcome is tied to a published official reading, the resolution rules are the main guide to how the contract settles [1]. The general climate background from Wikipedia describes London's overall climate type and record-keeping history, but it does not determine a specific day's minimum [2][3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which weather station determines the outcome?
The contract names the London City Airport Station, using NOAA data for that station [1].
What happens if NOAA data is missing?
The rules use the Weather Underground Daily Observations table if NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day [1]. If no data is available by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Are temperatures recorded to decimal places?
No. The resolution source measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, and the market uses that level of precision when resolving [1].
Can the resolved value be corrected after publication?
Yes, within limits. If the resolution source publishes a clearly erroneous value because of a technical or operational error, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release for a correction [1]. Revisions are considered only until the first data point for the following date is published [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
