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$16.77K
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$16.77K
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Before 2027 If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly X non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns potential personnel changes in a hypothetical second Trump administration. It specifically asks how many non-acting Cabinet members Donald Trump would fire or ask to resign before January 1, 2027, if he were to win the 2024 presidential election and take office in January 2025. The market resolves based on official announcements made by Trump himself through his social media accounts, video or audio statements, direct quotes in written reporting, or releases directly from his office. This question reflects broader political analysis about governance style, loyalty tests, and administrative stability in a potential future administration. Interest stems from Trump's first-term record of high Cabinet turnover and his public statements about appointing aggressive loyalists. Observers track this to gauge potential policy volatility and the internal dynamics of a Trump White House. The topic connects to debates about the strength of the civil service, the concentration of executive power, and the operational capacity of the federal government under a president known for valuing personal allegiance.
Cabinet turnover in the Trump administration was historically high. The Brookings Institution tracked a 92% turnover rate among senior advisers and Cabinet-level officials in Trump's first three years, a rate exceeding the previous five presidents. Specific dismissals were often public and contentious. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired via a tweet in March 2018. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was forced to resign in November 2018 after enduring repeated public criticism from Trump over his recusal from the Russia investigation. This pattern has historical roots in a broader trend of increasing White House centralization and the politicization of the executive branch, but Trump's first term accelerated it. The use of acting officials also set precedents. After firing Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen in April 2019, Trump cycled through multiple acting secretaries before a permanent nominee was confirmed. This approach to personnel management, emphasizing flexibility and loyalty over institutional stability, forms the primary basis for predictions about a second term.
Frequent Cabinet turnover disrupts the implementation of federal policy. Long-term projects at agencies like Defense, State, or Treasury can stall without stable leadership, creating uncertainty for international allies, domestic industries, and government employees. It can also weaken the system of checks and balances, as acting officials may feel less independent and more beholden to the president who can remove them without Senate involvement. The political ramifications are significant for governance. Constant confirmation battles could consume the Senate's agenda and deepen partisan divides. For the public, it translates to potential inconsistency in regulations, enforcement, and federal programs. Investors and businesses monitor Cabinet stability for signals about regulatory direction in areas like finance, energy, and trade, where sudden leadership changes can impact markets and planning.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican Party's presumptive presidential nominee for the November 2024 election. He has not publicly outlined a specific list of Cabinet members for a potential second term but has suggested he would appoint aggressive individuals who share his political vision. Several former aides and allies have drafted policy plans and lists of potential loyalist appointees, indicating preparations for a rapid staffing process. The outcome of the 2024 election will determine if this prediction market becomes active.
President Trump directly fired or publicly forced the resignation of several Cabinet secretaries. Confirmed cases include Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (fired via tweet) and Attorney General Jeff Sessions (forced resignation). Other departures, like those of EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt and HHS Secretary Tom Price, were resignations following scandals and intense pressure from the White House.
The President has the unilateral authority to fire any principal executive officer, including Cabinet secretaries. There is no requirement for Congressional approval. The typical process involves a request for a resignation letter, which is almost always provided. The president then nominates a replacement, who must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.
While speculative, names frequently mentioned by Trump allies and media reports include Stephen Miller for a role shaping immigration policy, former Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller, and former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Many potential picks are expected to be individuals who demonstrated loyalty during Trump's first term or after the 2020 election.
The Federal Vacancies Reform Act allows the President to appoint an acting official to fill a vacant Senate-confirmed position for a limited time, typically 210 days. Following a firing, Trump could use this act to install a temporary successor without immediate Senate confirmation, a strategy he employed frequently during his first administration.
An acting secretary temporarily leads a department without being formally nominated and confirmed by the Senate. They have the same legal authority as a confirmed secretary but may be perceived as having less permanence and political capital. A confirmed secretary has undergone public hearings and received majority approval from the Senate, which can provide greater institutional legitimacy.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027? | Kalshi | 67% |
Will Trump fire 1 Cabinet members before 2027? | Kalshi | 17% |
Will Trump fire 2 Cabinet members before 2027? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will Trump fire 3 Cabinet members before 2027? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will Trump fire 5 Cabinet members before 2027? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Trump fire 4 Cabinet members before 2027? | Kalshi | 3% |
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