$384.45K
1
32
$384.45K
1
32
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2026 Pro Football Draft If X is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves to Yes based on the team that makes the first selection in the draft. If a team initially owns the rights to the first overall pick but trades that pick to another team, the market will resolve to Yes for the team that ultimately makes the selection, not the team that originally held the pick. This market will close and expire after the firs
Prediction markets currently give the Las Vegas Raiders a 93% chance of making the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. In simpler terms, traders see it as nearly certain, with odds so high they suggest only a major surprise would change the outcome. This reflects a strong consensus that the Raiders will be in position to pick first, whether by having the league's worst record or by trading for the pick.
Two main factors drive this prediction. First, the Raiders' recent performance and roster outlook suggest they could be one of the NFL's weakest teams over the next two seasons. They have uncertainty at the quarterback position and finished the 2024 season with a losing record, a trend analysts believe may continue through 2025. Teams that struggle for consecutive seasons typically earn high draft picks.
Second, the 2026 draft class is expected to feature several highly-touted quarterback prospects. Teams needing a franchise quarterback, like the Raiders, are often willing to trade significant assets to move up to the number one spot. Even if the Raiders don't have the worst record, the market believes their need for a quarterback and potential trade capital make them the most likely final destination for the top pick.
The 2025 NFL season is the primary event that will shape this prediction. The Raiders' win-loss record by December 2025 will be the biggest signal. If they are among the league's bottom three teams, their odds will solidify. Key moments to watch include the 2025 NFL trade deadline in late October, where a Raiders fire-sale of veterans would signal a full rebuild aimed at securing a high pick, and the end of the 2025 regular season in early January 2026, when the draft order is finalized.
Markets are generally decent at forecasting NFL draft positioning a year or more out, especially for teams on clear trajectories. However, this far in advance, predictions are more speculative. A surprise team collapse, a major Raiders free-agent signing, or an unexpected rookie quarterback performance in 2025 could drastically shift the odds. The high 93% probability shows high confidence in a specific narrative, but the NFL is notoriously unpredictable, so the actual outcome still has room for surprises.
Prediction markets on Kalshi are pricing in a 93% probability that the Las Vegas Raiders will make the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. This price indicates near-certainty in the market's view. With contracts trading at 93 cents, participants see only a 7% chance that any other team will ultimately be on the clock for the top pick. The market has attracted significant attention, with over $383,000 in total volume spread across 32 team-specific contracts, suggesting strong liquidity and conviction in the current favorite.
This extreme pricing is almost entirely a bet on the Raiders' projected performance, or lack thereof, over the next two seasons. The first overall pick is awarded to the team with the worst record in the league. Las Vegas enters the 2024 season with significant instability, having fired head coach Josh McDaniels mid-season in 2023 and now led by a first-time head coach in Antonio Pierce. Their quarterback situation, with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell, is widely viewed as a temporary solution, not a long-term answer. The market is effectively forecasting that this combination of coaching transition and subpar quarterback play will result in a bottom-tier record in both 2024 and 2025, securing the league's worst cumulative standing and the draft's top selection.
The primary risk to this consensus is unexpected competitive performance from the Raiders. A defensive resurgence or competent quarterback play could lift them out of the league's basement. A more specific threat is the potential for a draft pick trade. The market resolves based on the team that makes the pick, not the team that earns the selection slot. If the Raiders finish with the worst record but trade the first overall pick to another team for a historic haul of future assets, this market would resolve to "No" for Las Vegas. The odds for other teams, like the Carolina Panthers or Tennessee Titans, would only tighten if their own rebuilds go catastrophically wrong or if they emerge as a likely trade partner for the top selection. The 2024 and 2025 NFL seasons will determine the final order.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on which NFL team will make the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the specific franchise that officially announces the first pick during the draft event. A critical rule is that the resolution depends on the team that actually makes the selection, not the team that originally held the draft rights. If the pick is traded, the market resolves based on the final selecting team. The 2026 draft is notable as it will be the first draft following the 2025 NFL season, a year that will determine draft order based on team records and playoff results. Interest in this market emerges from the high value of the first overall pick, which typically secures a franchise-altering quarterback or elite defensive player. Analysts and fans closely monitor the performance of struggling teams during the 2025 season, as their win-loss records directly influence the draft order. The identity of the team with the first pick is a major storyline throughout the NFL season and offseason, driving speculation about potential trades and the top collegiate prospects available.
The NFL Draft began in 1936, with the Philadelphia Eagles selecting Heisman Trophy winner Jay Berwanger first overall. He chose not to play professionally. The modern draft system, which awards the first pick to the team with the worst record from the previous season, was formally adopted with the introduction of the 'reverse-order' system. This was modified in 2021 to a 17-game regular season, which slightly altered the strength-of-schedule tiebreakers used to determine order among teams with identical records. The value of the first overall pick is immense. From 2011 to 2023, a quarterback was selected first overall 11 times, demonstrating the positional premium. Trades for the top pick are historic events. In 2016, the Los Angeles Rams traded a massive package to the Tennessee Titans to move up and select Jared Goff. In 2023, the Carolina Panthers traded multiple first-round picks and star receiver DJ Moore to the Chicago Bears for the right to select Bryce Young first overall. These trades underscore that the team making the selection is not always the team that earned the pick through its record.
The first overall pick has significant financial and competitive ramifications for the NFL ecosystem. The selected player receives a fully guaranteed rookie contract worth over $40 million, a massive immediate investment for any franchise. For the city and fanbase of the selecting team, it represents hope for a multi-year turnaround and can boost ticket sales, merchandise revenue, and local media interest. For the league, the drama surrounding the pick is a major offseason marketing tool that sustains engagement between the Super Bowl and the new season. The decision affects numerous stakeholders beyond the team. The player's agents negotiate a landmark contract. The marketing and apparel companies associated with the player and team see immediate commercial opportunities. Sports media outlets experience a surge in traffic from analysis and debate. For prediction markets, it is a high-volume event with a clear, verifiable resolution, attracting both serious analysts and casual fans, making it a benchmark for sports-related forecasting.
As of late 2024, the 2026 NFL Draft order is completely undetermined. It will be set by the results of the 2025 NFL regular season and playoffs. Current speculation focuses on teams perceived to be in rebuilding phases or with aging quarterbacks, such as the Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans, or New York Giants, as potential candidates to have a top draft slot. The 2025 college football season will determine which prospects, like University of Georgia quarterback Carson Beck or University of Texas quarterback Arch Manning, are in contention to be the top selection. The market for the 2026 first pick will begin to take shape in earnest during the 2025 NFL season, as team records solidify and trade rumors emerge.
The draft order is primarily based on the reverse order of the previous season's standings. The team with the worst record typically gets the first pick, with tiebreakers like strength of schedule used to separate teams with identical records. However, that team can trade the pick to another franchise.
No. The Super Bowl champion selects last in the first round (32nd, barring trades). The first overall pick is almost always held by a team that did not make the playoffs, and frequently by one of the teams with the very worst records in the league.
For this prediction market, the resolution is based on the team that actually submits the selection to the commissioner on draft night. If Team A earns the pick but trades it to Team B, the market resolves to 'Yes' for Team B, not Team A.
Early speculative mentions for the 2026 draft class include quarterbacks Carson Beck (Georgia) and Arch Manning (Texas), and defensive lineman James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee). Their performance during the 2025 college season will solidify or change their draft stock.
The location for the 2026 draft has not been officially announced as of late 2024. Recent drafts have been held in cities like Detroit (2024) and Green Bay (2025). The event is typically held in late April.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
32 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Las Vegas make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 93% |
Will Baltimore make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will New York G make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Los Angeles R make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Tennessee make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Washington make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Tampa Bay make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will San Francisco make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Seattle make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Pittsburgh make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Philadelphia make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will New Orleans make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will New England make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Minnesota make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Los Angeles C make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Kansas City make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Jacksonville make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Indianapolis make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Houston make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Green Bay make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Detroit make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Dallas make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Cincinnati make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Chicago make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Carolina make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Buffalo make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Atlanta make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft? | Kalshi | 1% |
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