Oregon Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)
K 0 contracts
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9
Oregon Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)
K 0 contracts
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Ron Wyden at 77.5%.
Kalshi
- Ron Wyden77.5%
- Andrea Salinas3.6%
- Jake Ryan3.6%
- Dan Rayfield3.4%
- Maxine Dexter3.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Oregon (D) If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Oregon Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T12:00:06.010Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers nine separate Kalshi contracts under the event "Oregon Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)." Each asks whether a single named person will win the Democratic nomination for the 2028 Class III Oregon Senate seat. The event rules state that "If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Oregon Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] The rules also say the market "is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner," and that it "will close after X wins the party's nomination." [1]
The listed end date for each contract is November 7, 2028, 15:00 UTC. The provider's event excerpt, however, says "Listed end time: not supplied," and the rules tie closing to the nomination outcome rather than to that date. The listed date is therefore a platform field, not an announced nomination date, and the evidence does not say when the nomination will occur.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 12:00 UTC on November 12, 2026, and the record was retrieved at 14:21 UTC the same day. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Ron Wyden's Yes contract was quoted at 0.775, with No at 0.225. The other eight named contracts were each quoted between 0.0325 and 0.0375 for Yes. [1] Because the sample is ordered by Yes price, Wyden's contract appears first, and the others follow in descending order.
The nine Yes prices sum to about 1.06. Separate contracts on different names are not presented as one exhaustive distribution, so this total should not be read as a probability field. The gap is not an arbitrage signal either, since the evidence does not include executable prices, fees, or settlement mechanics.
Volume data is not supplied in this summary and should not be read as liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record states that all nine saved markets are included and that the sample is not partial. [1] The sample warning also says that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1] Any candidate absent from this list cannot be assumed to have a lower price.
The evidence contains no information on the nomination timeline, candidate announcements, media projections, or reasons for the current prices. Only one source was supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
References
- Kalshi: Oregon Democratic Senate nominee? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-11-12T12:00:06.010Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event asking who will win the Democratic nomination for the 2028 Class III Oregon Senate seat. The event's rules state that if a named candidate, referred to as X, wins the Democratic Party's nomination to contest that seat, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each candidate in the event has its own Yes or No contract, so the event is a set of separate yes-or-no questions about the same nomination. The contract rules allow accelerated determination. The market is eligible for early resolution after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner [1]. The rules also say the market will close after X wins the party's nomination [1]. Because the nomination is decided through a party process, the close depends on that outcome rather than on a fixed calendar date. The individual market records list an end date of November 7, 2028 [1]. That date appears in the contract data, not as an announced date for the nomination. The rules tie closing to the nomination outcome, so the listed date should not be read as the date the party will choose its nominee. The background pages describe the wider calendar. The 2028 United States elections are scheduled to be held in large part on November 7, 2028, and include congressional races [2]. The 2028 Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses are organized by the party to select delegates to its national convention, and they are described as taking place across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, five U.S. territories, and through Democrats Abroad [3]. These pages describe general scheduling and do not establish the status of any specific Senate nomination contest.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific named person wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2028 Class III Oregon Senate seat [1]. It is useful for following a party nomination that is scheduled to be decided well before the general election, which the broader election pages place on November 7, 2028 [2]. Because each candidate has a separate contract, the event lets users compare outcomes for individual names, but the contracts do not show how the party itself will decide. The contract is tied to a formal nomination result, not to public opinion or news coverage. Its resolution path depends on X winning the party's nomination and on any early determination following media projections [1]. Readers should check the current rules on the provider's page before relying on any detail here.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event makes a contract resolve to Yes?
A contract resolves to Yes if the named candidate wins the Democratic Party's nomination to contest the 2028 Class III Oregon Senate seat [1].
When does the market close?
The rules say the market will close after X wins the party's nomination [1]. The provider's listed end time for the event was not supplied [1], so the November 7, 2028 date shown in the contract data should not be treated as a scheduled nomination date.
Can the market resolve before the party formally finishes its process?
The rules allow accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner [1].
Do the prices show how likely each candidate is to win?
Prices from a provider are market snapshots and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes. Each contract's price reflects trading at the time it was recorded, and a separate contract's price does not by itself show a mispricing relative to another contract.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
