Georgia Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)
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Georgia Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)
K 0 contracts
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8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Raphael Warnock at 88.5%.
Kalshi
- Raphael Warnock88.5%
- Lucy McBath2.8%
- Josh McLaurin2.1%
- Stacey Abrams1.9%
- Jason Esteves1.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Georgia (D) If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Georgia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T12:00:06.010Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether a named candidate will win the Democratic nomination for the 2028 Class III Georgia Senate seat. Under the listed rule, "If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Georgia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each named candidate has its own Yes and No contract, so the eight markets in this snapshot are separate questions rather than parts of one ranked comparison.
The source also says the market "is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner," and that it "will close after X wins the party's nomination" [1]. The provider's listed end time is not supplied in the event excerpt. Each market record carries an end date of 2028-11-07T15:00:00.000Z, but that field is a provider close time, not an announced nomination date or a confirmed event schedule. Accelerated determination could close a contract earlier than that field suggests.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-12T12:00:06.010Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-12T13:00:34.909Z [1]. These prices describe that observed moment only and are not live quotes.
The Yes prices in the saved sample are 0.885 for Raphael Warnock, 0.0275 for Lucy McBath, 0.0215 for Josh McLaurin, 0.0195 for Stacey Abrams, 0.0195 for Jason Esteves, 0.0175 for Michael Thurmond, and 0.0165 for both Jasmine Clark and Nikema Williams [1]. The sample includes all eight saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1].
The Yes prices sum to about 1.0035. That gap is small and within the range one would expect from snapshot rounding and spreads, but these figures are not executable quotes, and the sum does not establish an arbitrage opportunity. The prices should not be read as verified probabilities.
Volume and selection order also matter. The sample was ordered by Yes price, then volume, so the listing order reflects that rule rather than any measure of support [1].
What remains uncertain
The sampleWarning states that the saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The sample therefore covers only the candidates the provider listed, and no conclusion should be drawn about candidates who are absent.
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, how many traders hold each position, or how liquid any contract is. No recent reporting or historical accuracy data is supplied. The listed end time for the event is not supplied, and the per-market end date should be checked against the rules before relying on it.
References
- Kalshi: Georgia Democratic Senate nominee? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-11-12T12:00:06.010Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCOverview
The Kalshi event titled "Georgia Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)" concerns who will win the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2028 Class III Georgia Senate seat [1]. Under the contract rules, a market resolves to Yes if the named person wins that nomination [1]. The event lists a separate Yes/No contract for each named person, so each contract asks a different question about the same nomination [1]. The rules also describe when a contract can close. The source states that a market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and that the market closes after the named person wins the party's nomination [1]. Closing and resolution therefore depend on the nomination outcome, not on a fixed calendar date. The provider event does not supply a listed end time, so the contract rules alone do not establish when a nomination will be decided [1]. The Wikipedia pages supplied for context describe the broader 2028 cycle. They state that Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses will select delegates to the 2028 Democratic National Convention, and that these contests will take place in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, five U.S. territories, and through Democrats Abroad [2]. The same pages state that elections are scheduled to be held in large part on November 7, 2028, including presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, state legislative, and local races [3]. These are scheduled or planned descriptions, not confirmed outcomes. The supplied material does not describe the procedure or timetable for the Georgia Senate nomination specifically.
Historical Context
The supplied sources describe scheduled and planned events for 2028. The Wikipedia pages state that Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses are organized to select delegates to the 2028 Democratic National Convention [2], and that U.S. elections are scheduled to be held in large part on November 7, 2028 [3]. They do not provide historical background on the Georgia Senate seat or on past Georgia Senate nominations.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific named person wins the Democratic nomination for the 2028 Class III Georgia Senate seat. Because each named person has a separate Yes/No contract, the event lets traders price each name individually [1]. The rules tie resolution to the nomination result, and they allow accelerated determination once media organizations reach a consensus projection [1]. The prices shown in the market data are snapshots at the observation time. They reflect the most recent trades or quotes available to the provider at that moment, and they are not verified probabilities or executable quotes.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a contract in this event to resolve to Yes?
The rules state that if the named person wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2028 Class III Georgia Senate seat, the market resolves to Yes [1].
When does a contract in this event close?
According to the rules, a market closes after the named person wins the party's nomination [1]. The provider event does not supply a listed end time [1].
Can a decision come before the nomination is formally complete?
The rules say the market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner [1].
Why are there several contracts for one event?
The event lists a separate contract for each named candidate, and each one asks whether that specific person will win the nomination [1].
Do the Wikipedia pages confirm the Georgia Senate nomination timeline?
No. The pages describe the broader 2028 Democratic presidential primaries and the scheduled November 7, 2028 elections [2][3], but they do not describe the Georgia Senate nomination process.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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