GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

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Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

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13 markets tracked

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?	Kalshi	38%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?	Kalshi	38%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?	Kalshi	21%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?	Kalshi	5%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?	Kalshi	2%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 4?	Kalshi	2%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 6?	Kalshi	2%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 9?	Kalshi	1%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 8?	Kalshi	1%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 7?	Kalshi	1%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 12?	Kalshi	1%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 11?	Kalshi	1%
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 10?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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38%

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About This Event

Before 2027 If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. X ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size, e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one. X later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. X ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size, e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one. X later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 9, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. Early close c"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 9?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 8?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 7?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 6?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 12?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 11?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 10?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.2% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Volume$0.00

Markets13

13 of 13

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KALSHI

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.8¢No 62.2¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. Early close c

KALSHI

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.8¢No 62.2¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?

If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. Early close c

KALSHI

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.8¢No 79.3¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?

If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. Early close c

KALSHI

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.1¢No 94.9¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?

If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. Early close c

KALSHI

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.3¢No 97.8¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?

If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. Early close c

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Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

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Events (1)

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Markets (13)

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?

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Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

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Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?

Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5?

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