Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US nominal GDP growth in 2026

Total Volume

$1.57K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US nominal GDP growth in 2026

Vol

$1.57K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.57K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.57K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	98%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.5%?	Kalshi	97%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.0%?	Kalshi	97%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.0%?	Kalshi	96%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.5%?	Kalshi	96%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 3.0%?	Kalshi	96%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.5%?	Kalshi	96%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 4.0%?	Kalshi	95%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 3.5%?	Kalshi	95%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 5.0%?	Kalshi	94%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 4.5%?	Kalshi	94%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 5.5%?	Kalshi	85%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 6.0%?	Kalshi	52%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$1.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP, Advance Estimate, 4th Quarter and Year 2026,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US nominal GDP growth in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP, Advance Estimate, 4th Quarter and Year 2026,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 6.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $912
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 5.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $130
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 5.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $37
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 4.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $490
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 4.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 3.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 3.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US nominal GDP growth in 2026

Volume$1.57K

Markets13

13 of 13

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KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.5%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.5%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/WODNYy" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US nominal GDP growth in 2026"></iframe>

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US nominal GDP growth in 2026

US nominal GDP growth in 2026

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Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

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Events (1)

US nominal GDP growth in 2026

Markets (13)

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.5%?

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Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US nominal GDP growth in 2026

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 1.5%?

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